France’s national target stands far from a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway. It would need to reduce domestic emissions by 62% from 1990 levels to levels of 210 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF, to be 1.5°C compatible, leaving an ambition gap of around 120 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.
Franceʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
Reference year
Reference year
1990
1.5°C emissions level
−62%
2030 National Target
−40%
Ambition gap
−22%
1.5°C compatible pathways
Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
Current policy projections
1.5°C emissions range
Historical emissions
2030 Ambition
France targets emissions reductions of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, which translates to 329 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF by 2030.1
2 Conseil d’Etat. Émissions de gaz à effet de serre : le Conseil d’État enjoint au Gouvernement de prendre des mesures supplémentaires avant le 31 mars 2022. (2021).
The lack of stringent policies, notably in transport and buildings, the largest emitting sectors in the country, sets the country to miss its national target. This has led the French Council of State – the highest judicial authority in France – to order the government to align policies with the current target by 2022 and compensate for emissions above budget.2
Fair share
A full fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require France to go further than its domestic emissions target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Net zero GHG
France’s long-term strategy aims at reaching net zero GHG by 2050 – with a level of sinks from the land sector of around -80 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 to balance remaining emissions from other sectors, mostly agriculture. France’s net zero target was signed into law in 2019.
2050 Ambition
Our analysis shows that for France to be 1.5°C compatible, emissions would need to be 92% below 1990 levels by 2050, excluding LULUCF, and would need to balance residual emissions with removals not higher than 47 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 – close to half of the residual emissions the country is aiming for by mid-century.
While France already benefits from a relatively low emitting power sector, 1.5°C compatible pathways show the need for a rapid fall of carbon intensity in the power sector by 82% below 2017 levels.
Decarbonisation of the power sector would need to be driven by a coal phase out in 2025 and a gas phase out between 2035 and 2038. While France has announced a coal phase-out by 2022, the country has recently revised its plan to keep one power plant running at 10% capacity, effectively postponing the phase out to between 2024 and 2026.
Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways shows an uptake of renewables in the power mix of between 59-84% by 2030. France generated 17% of its electricity from renewables in 2017 and close to 27% in 2020.