What is France's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

France has a national target to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. This target translates to limiting emissions levels to 329 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF.1 Current policy projections show that France is off track to meeting the target, as it is expected to reduce emissions by only 24% below 1990 levels by 2030. France’s domestic emissions would need to be reduced by 62% from 1990 levels to 206 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF to align its economy with 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathways.

Unlike, for example Germany and Italy, France has not revised its national emissions reduction target since 2015. The updated EU emissions reduction goal – itself not yet compatible with 1.5°C – also suggests that France should significantly increase its ambition as it has a much higher capability to do more than most other EU member states.

France failed to stay within its first carbon budget for the 2015–2018 period, reducing emissions by only 1% per year instead of the required 2.2%. In 2021, the French Council of State ordered the government to align policies and measures with the current carbon budget by 2022 and to compensate for the 2015–2018 carbon budget overshoot. The ruling came after a study found that policies, notably in the transport and buildings sectors, were not stringent enough to meet the government’s climate targets.2 In March 2022, France introduced some new measures to increase the share of low emission vehicles and decrease the number of household heating from oil. Such measures will, however, only marginally improve the government’s ability to meet the 2030 emissions reduction target.3

To do its fair share of global climate action, France should not only increase the pace of its domestic emissions reductions, but also provide substantial support for emissions reductions to developing countries.

France's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Long term pathway

France’s 2020 long-term strategy sets a “carbon neutrality” target for 2050. According to it, meeting this target can be achieved by reducing GHG emissions by 83% below 1990 resulting in emissions not exceeding 80 MtCO₂e in 2050 and by balancing these emissions by removals mostly in the LULUCF sector but also to a lesser extent from carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.4

To be 1.5°C compatible, France should reduce its domestic emissions by 89% by 2050 compared to 1990, excluding the LULUCF sector. This would require emissions in 2050 to not exceed 61 MtCO₂e and be fully compensated by emissions sinks and permanent carbon removal, primarily from the land sector.

France's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

Switching to renewable energy sources is the greatest contribution to decarbonising the energy system. Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways for France indicates a share of renewables of between 20–40% of the energy supply in 2030 and 40–60% in 2050. France’s energy system emissions are relatively low because of a high share of energy from nuclear power plants (72% from the power mix in 2022). However, the unplanned outages throughout 2022 have shown that a heavy reliance on this source of energy may have some negative repercussions and lead to higher share of fossil fuels, with resulting increased emissions.

According to the EU Renewable Energy Directive from 2009, France should have increased the share of renewables in its energy mix to at least 23% by 2020. However, it only reached 19%. The current negotiations on increasing the EU’s renewable energy target will require a higher target for the share of renewables in France too.

The decline in energy consumption is a key component in some 1.5°C scenarios we analysed. Three scenarios show reduction in energy consumption of 25–40% between 2017 and 2030, which would translate to levels of 150–186 Mtoe in 2030, and of 16–59% between 2017 and 2050. France’s law on energy transition for green growth targets primary energy consumption of 202.2 Mtoe in 2030 – which is above the 1.5°C compatible reductions.5

While our analysis shows the deployment of negative emissions technologies from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) starting in 2040, they stay well below 20% of energy demand by 2050, except in a high energy demand scenario. In its low carbon strategy France envisions the use of BECCS to a limited extent, aiming at contributing to around –6 MtCO₂e/yr of negative emissions by 2050.6

Finally, under 1.5°C compatible pathways CO₂ emissions, largely from energy production, should reduce by 48–65% below 2015 levels by 2030. France’s Low Carbon National Strategy sets an emissions reduction target of 33% below 2015 levels by 2030.

France's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for France. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
1990
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
548
436
206
176 to 241
85
57 to 136
61
-29 to 71
Relative to reference year in %
-62%
-68 to -56%
-84%
-90 to -75%
-89%
-105 to -87%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
400
327
135
119 to 178
27
11 to 79
2
-69 to 27
2052
2042 to 2062
Relative to reference year in %
-66%
-70 to -55%
-93%
-97 to -80%
-99%
-117 to -93%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Cookie settings

Just like other websites, we use cookies to improve and personalize your experience. We collect standard Internet log information and aggregated data to analyse our traffic. Our preference cookies allow us to adapt our content to our audience interests.