What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
Germany’s transport sector was responsible for 20% of national GHG emission in 2022. Transport emissions declined by 11% from 2019 to 2023.1
In 1.5°C compatible pathways, energy consumption in transport decreases through to 2050. This is driven by policies supporting a modal shift to shared transport. Fossil oil, which is the dominant fuel in the sector rapidly falls but small amounts still remain in 2050.
Germany's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In these pathways, electricity demand in transport grows as the share of EVs rises and rail travel expands. Following a deep electrification pathway, the transport sector electrifies more rapidly, with electricity reaching 16% of the transport energy mix by 2030, if EV markets perform well. Towards 2050, electricity stabilises at 48% and biofuels – used to fuel domestic aviation and road freight – grow to 36%. Similarly, the net-zero commitments pathway sees greater electrification by 2050, but the final fuel mix is more diversified with hydrogen competing more with biofuels. Both pathways result in the least reliance on fossil oil by 2050.
The new German government formed in 2025 outlined it will increase rail investments to speed up rail electrification and facilitate a modal shift from road freight to rail.2 However, the government will reverse the aviation tax increase and abolish aviation power to liquid quotas, making sustainable aviation fuels less cost competitive to fossil fuels, thereby slowing the transition. Re-introducing purchase subsidies for EVs, which were removed back in 2023, will help the uptake of EV sales while supporting a just transition.3
Germany's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Germany
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
141
|
71 to
103
|
39 to
70
|
17 to
35
|
4 to
9
|
2046 to
2056
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-50 to
-27%
|
-72 to
-50%
|
-88 to
-75%
|
-97 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
1
|
9 to
16
|
17 to
28
|
30 to
37
|
49 to
53
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
3
|
8 to
13
|
11 to
17
|
13 to
24
|
16 to
37
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
3
|
1 to
6
|
1 to
9
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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