What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Germany’s power sector accounts for 29% of its total GHG emissions in 2022. While is shifting away from fossil fuels towards renewables, the pace slower than needed. In 2024, fossil fuels made up about 43% of electricity generation, mostly from coal and gas – though both are decreasing. Renewables make up 54% for the same year. Wind and solar constitute the largest renewable sources of electricity generation. As of 2024, nuclear is already phased out. Capacity of gas power is still growing, while coal has been sluggishly decreasing over the last few years.1 Germany aims to have 75% of its electricity generated from renewables by 2030, with 215 GW from solar and 124 GW from wind.2
Germany's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Germany’s power sector would need to be fully decarbonised between 2031 and 2035. If Germany follows a minimal CDR reliance pathway, this means conventional renewables in electricity generation need to reach at least 92% by 2030.
Across all illustrated pathways, both coal and gas are phased out at latest by 2030.
In 2020, Germany committed to phase out coal power plants by 2038, with an option to bring this forward to 2035. As of 2024, 46 coal plants in Germany remain open with a total capacity of 32 GW. With current retirement plans however, 19 coal plants will continue to be open after 2030, providing 23 GW of capacity.3 This is far off track from 1.5°C compatible pathways. The new government elected in 2025 announced it will continue to pursue a 2038 coal phase out. It also announced it will expand gas power capacity to 20 GW by 2030, with new plants containing integrated carbon capture and storage (CCS).4
Germany is currently off track from achieving its 2030 power sector renewable targets by 15 GW.5 Adding new gas capacity will make meeting these targets even more difficult.
Germany's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Germany's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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Power capacity investments
Germany’s electricity demand has fallen by 18% since its peak in 2007.6 In 1.5°C compatible pathways out to 2050, electricity demand increases as end use sectors require more electricity. Buildings will drive this largest increase in electricity demand, followed by industry and transport. Following a minimal CDR Reliance pathway, Germany’s electricity demand grows by more than 71% from 2021 levels, or as much as 124% by following a deep electrification pathway.
To meet this growing demand and phase out the remaining fossil gas and coal in the power sector in line with 1.5°C, Germany will need to rapidly deploy renewable capacity.
In 1.5°C compatible pathways, total renewable capacity quadruples by 2030 relative to 2021, reaching 394-463 GW. Following a deep electrification pathway, solar capacity reaches 271 GW by 2030, and wind capacity reaches 177 GW.
This is higher than the government’s own target in 2030 for which only plans for 215 GW of solar capacity.7 Germany’s planned 145 GW of wind capacity by 2030 aligns with the 1.5°C compatible net zero commitment and Minimal CDR reliance pathways. The latest government projections indicate that Germany is set to reach its target of 215 GW of solar by 2030, but will fall short on wind with just 130 GW.8
If Germany follows a deep electrification pathway, which implies early and greater uptake of renewables in the power sector, it will require annual investments of around USD 45 billion from 2026–2030.
In all pathways, investments in renewables would fall after 2030. 1.5°C pathways indicate high initial investments that become more cost effective over time. By 2050, annual investment needs for renewables fall to USD 7-10 billion.
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Germany
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
347
|
7 to
13
|
-5 to
5
|
-8 to
3
|
-11 to
0
|
2031 to
2035
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-98 to
-96%
|
-101 to
-99%
|
-102 to
-99%
|
-103 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
33
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
15
|
2 to
2
|
1 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
44
|
92 to
94
|
95 to
98
|
95 to
98
|
96 to
100
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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