What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Compatibility with 1.5°C pathways require rapid decarbonisation of the power sector. This could be driven by almost doubling the share of renewable energy to 88-89% by 2030, a coal phase-out by 2029 and a gas phase-out by 2036-2040.
Following the amendment of the German Renewable Energy Law in December 2020, in April 2022 Minister for Economy and Climate, Robert Habeck, presented a package of proposals that constitute a significant improvement in the renewable energy framework– with a goal of increasing the share of renewables to 80% by 2030 and close to 100% by 2035.1 The proposed target also takes into consideration the increase in electricity demand driven by electrification of other sectors. Current permitting processes need to be simplified to support implementation of renewable energy projects and achievement of the new target.
Germany's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5°C compatible scenarios indicate that emissions intensity of electricity generation should decrease by at least 67% in comparison to 2017 and the sector be fully decarbonised by 2035. However, any remaining emissions after 2030 are relatively small due to a significant decrease in emissions intensity - by at least 88%. Starting in 2030, almost all electricity could be generated from renewable sources. While their share increases only modestly in the subsequent decades, in absolute terms installed capacity doubles due to increasing electricity demand. In the early 2040s, the power sector, through the use of BECCS, starts contributing negative emissions, with grid emissions intensity reaching 0-20 gCO₂/kWh.
Germany's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Germany to be on the order of USD 9 to 74 billion by 2030 and USD 11 to 86 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and modernisation of the aging electricity infrastructure. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a ccurrent policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Germany's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Germany
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
351
|
25 to
60
|
0 to
1
|
-42 to
-14
|
2035 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-83%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-112 to
-104%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
31
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
15
|
4 to
6
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2036 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
41
|
88 to
89
|
97 to
97
|
97 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
47
|
7 to
9
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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