What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Germany’s industry sector was responsible for 23% of national GHG emissions in 2022, with 16% of emissions from industry related energy use and 7% from industrial processes. Industry related emissions fell by 7% between 2022 and 2023.1 While process emissions are steadily falling, industrial energy related emissions have risen slightly over the past 15 years.
Germany's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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A third of Germany’s industry is already electrified as of 2022 but 53% still relies on fossil fuels, mostly fossil gas and coal. In all pathways, there is rapid growth of industrial electrification coupled with a reduction in energy consumption due to energy efficiency measures.
Following the deep electrification pathway results in the fastest electrification, reaching 54% electricity by 2030, growing to 64% by 2040 onwards. Deep electrification results in the earliest phase out of fossil fuels, with coal effectively phased out by 2030 and fossil gas by 2050. Green hydrogen would start entering the fuel mix from 2030, reaching almost 15% by 2050. In this pathway, hydrogen displaces biofuels from the mix.
The Federal Climate Protection Act of 2019 enshrines that industrial emissions need to fall to 118 MtCO2e by 2030. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate these would need to fall to 25–39 MtCO2e by 2030, and that Germany’s industry could decarbonise as early as 2036, if concerted action is taken.2
The new German coalition government has only indicated it will set out to reduce energy costs for industry to help improve its competitiveness, but it has not indicated how to do so. It is also considering establishing quotas for ‘low emission’ steel production.3
Germany's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Germany's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Germany
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
96
|
25 to
39
|
9 to
29
|
2 to
11
|
-2 to
1
|
2036 to
2042
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-74 to
-59%
|
-91 to
-70%
|
-98 to
-89%
|
-102 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
22
|
39 to
54
|
45 to
61
|
48 to
64
|
51 to
64
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
26
|
57 to
65
|
65 to
74
|
75 to
80
|
78 to
88
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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