Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

In May 2021, the German government proposed to reduce emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. In June 2021, the new goal was enshrined in the amended Climate Protection Law.¹ While it is step forward, the country has not yet aligned its policies to its target: current policy projections would result in emissions falling by only 49% by 2030.²

Compatibility with 1.5°C pathways requires Germany to increase its 2030 emissions reduction goal to 68-76% by 2030 below 1990 levels.

The new EU emissions reduction goal also makes it necessary for Germany to significantly increase its goal as it has a much higher capability to do more than most other EU member states. Germany’s emissions per capita are still quite high – over 20% above EU average.

Germany's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In addition to increasing its 2030 emissions reduction goal, the amendment of the Climate Protection Law from June 2021, also included an emissions reduction goal of 88% by 2040. Germany should reach net zero GHG by 2048. Current policies adopted by March 2021 would only result in emissions reduction of 67%.

This is a significant improvement from the initial version of the Climate Protection Law, however in order to be 1.5°C compatible, Germany should target emissions levels no higher than 27-84 MtCO₂e/yr or a reduction of 93-102% by 2050, including the use of BECCS, but excluding LULUCF emissions.³

While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries such as Germany, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier.

Recent studies indicate a potential of around 63 MtCO₂e/yr of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies by 2045 for Germany.⁴ Given that the land sector in Germany is limited, and even projected to become a source, the country would need to implement CDR technologies to compensate these remaining positive emissions.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Accelerating development of renewables and an earlier coal phase-out would significantly reduce the emissions intensity of Germany’s electricity sector. However, Germany also needs to accelerate development of renewables in other sectors, especially in transport and heating. Importantly, all 1.5°C compatible scenarios lead to a decrease in energy consumption, in some cases by more than 50%. This indicates the need to increase energy efficiency, especially in the buildings and transport sectors.

Our analysis show that by 2050 almost all energy could be produced from renewables, with its shares increasing rapidly in all sectors in the 2020s and 2030s. Negative emissions in the form of biomass with CCS scale up slowly in the 2020s, but their share increases much faster in the 2040s. Scenarios with the highest improvements in energy efficiency and the fastest development of renewables, require the lowest share of negative emissions.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Germany. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	1249	812	333 295 to 402	118 74 to 192	57 -27 to 84
Relative to reference year in %			-73% -76 to -68%	-91% -94 to -85%	-95% -102 to -93%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	1055	712	302 231 to 351	97 19 to 143	5 -58 to 49	2054 2044 to 2063
Relative to reference year in %			-71% -78 to -67%	-91% -98 to -86%	-100% -106 to -95%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2020)
- Download data as CSV

Deutscher Bundestag. Deutscher Bundestag - Bundestag verschärft das Klimaschutzgesetz. (2021). ↩
European Environment Agency. Trends and Projections in Europe 2020. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Agora Energiewende. Publication - Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany by 2045 (2021). ↩

What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Germany's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Germany's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Germany's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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