What is Germany's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Germany’s 2030 national climate law aims to reduce emissions by at least 65% below 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF). Germany does not express its national 2030 target with LULUCF but specifies a LULUCF limit of -25MtCO2e. This would imply a 2030 target of 413 MtCO2e (including LULUCF) or 68% below 1990 levels.

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Germany would need a 2030 target of 378 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) or 346 MtCO2e (including LULUCF).

Germany’s current policy projections are expected to only reduce annual emissions in 2030 to 453-469 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF). This puts it off track to reach a 1.5°C aligned target by 75-91 MtCO2e. The gap could widen given the list of policies the new coalition government (2025) has outlined it wishes to take; including expansion of 20 GW of new gas power plant with integration of carbon capture and storage, expanding gas exploration, expanding company car tax reductions, reducing taxes on aviation and re-introducing subsidies for diesel fuel.1

Germany has not set a national 2035 target, and as an EU member state, the EU is yet to submit an updated NDC with a 2035 target. To be 1.5°C compatible, Germany would need to set a national 2035 emission reductions target between 172-248 MtCO2e, or 80-86% below 1990 levels.

Germany’s newly elected government (2025) supports the EU’s 2040 target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 90% from 1990 levels but is advocating for a compromise that reintroduces international carbon offset credits, under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.2 This raises concerns, as previous reliance on such credits flooded the EU market with cheap offsets from projects that were often environmentally and socially harmful. While Germany insists on strict environmental standards and proposes limiting offsets to 3% of the target, the risks remain significant.3,4

Germany's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

LULUCF

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology (excluding LULUCF)

    Data References (excluding LULUCF)

Long term pathway

In 2021, Germany revised its Climate Law, committing to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.5 It submitted its long-term strategy to the UNFCCC in 2022 reiterating this target.6

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, by 2045 Germany’s emissions should fall to between 97 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF) and 8 MtCO2e. By 2050, emissions should fall to at most 59 MtCO2e.

By 2045, the government is targeting 40 MtCO2e of net greenhouse gas removals.7 Recent projections suggest that Germany’s LULUCF sink is far off track from meeting its targets. In 2045 it is projected to emit 37MtCO2, representing an emissions gap of 75 MtCO2e.8

This suggests that if Germany follows the least ambitious 1.5°C compatible emissions reduction pathway, its national LULUCF target for 2045 will not be sufficient to meet climate neutrality.

Germany indicated that technological carbon dioxide removal will play a role in achieving its target.9 In 2024, the previous government announced its plans to scale up carbon capture and storage (CCS). It seeks to provide state aid to scale up CCS in the industry sector but not for the power sector.10 The government is yet to be formally adopted it strategy.11

Germany's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Germany. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
1990
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1251
674
295 to 378
172 to 248
67 to 133
-24 to 59
Relative to reference year in %
-76 to -70%
-86 to -80%
-95 to -89%
-102 to -95%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
998
563
166 to 281
70 to 166
-20 to 76
-101 to -10
Relative to reference year in %
-83 to -72%
-93 to -83%
-102 to -92%
-110 to -101%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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