Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Japan’s NDC sets an emission reduction target of 46% below 2013 by 2030, excluding emissions from LULUCF in the base year, but including them in the target year. When expressed as excluding LULUCF in both years, this is equivalent to a 42% reduction. In absolute terms, this corresponds to emissions of around 814 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF.

While the announced target is a step forward, neither Japan’s announced NDC update nor current NDC are in line with a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway, which would require a rapid decline in domestic GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF), reaching about 60-72% below 2013 levels by 2030, equivalent to around 391-556 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.¹^,²

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Japan to go further than its domestic emissions reduction target, and provide substantial financial or support for emission reductions to developing countries. Japan’s fair share as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker (domestic and international support) would require the country to finance or provide support for mitigation abroad equivalent to domestic emissions reductions on top of its domestic reductions.³

Japan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2010
2013
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In its long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement, released in October 2021, Japan committed to reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050. The document links the 46% reduction target of the country’s NDC with the long-term goal and states that the country will make additional efforts to reach a 50% emissions reduction below 2013 levels by 2030.⁴ Both the 2030 and 2050 targets include contributions from LULUCF sinks.

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require that Japan accelerate GHG emissions reductions which began in 2013 to reduce domestic emissions (i.e., excluding LULUCF) by 60-72% below 2013 levels by 2030.⁵ Reductions of 94-104% below 2013 levels would be needed by 2050.⁶

The energy sector will be a key focus in achieving net zero, and particularly the development of offshore wind, green hydrogen fuel, and the decarbonisation of transport and buildings. Strategies for these key areas have been outlined in Japan’s recent Green Growth Strategy.⁷

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The energy sector, including power, industry and transport, will need to contribute the largest emissions reductions to bring Japan in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Fossil fuel use will need to contract from 90% share of primary energy (2019 levels) to less than two-thirds by 2030, and below a fifth in 2050.⁸

Some 1.5°C compatible pathways have relatively high shares of fossil fuels with CCS in TPES (around a third of TPES by 2050) while other pathways, which do not rely on CCS, show a transition with a greater share of renewables, reaching a 53% share in 2050. Recent studies have pointed out difficulties in both deploying CCS and increasing renewable energy shares in Japan’s energy mix and suggest that energy efficiency measures and zero emissions technologies will likely be necessary for the country to realise full decarbonisation.⁹^,¹⁰ CCS is as of yet an unproven technology with uncertain mitigation potential at the scale required by 1.5°C compatible pathways (both in Japan and globally). Renewable energy technologies, such as wind and green hydrogen, are a more cost-efficient option with added economic co-benefits.¹¹^,¹²

All of the analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways have TPES decreasing rapidly between now and 2030 and most reach a level of around 12 EJ in 2050 (down from around 17 EJ in 2019).¹³

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Japan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

2010
2013
2015

Indicator	2013 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	1406	1209	475 391 to 556	142 59 to 234	44 -51 to 83	2066
Relative to reference year in %			-66% -72 to -60%	-90% -96 to -83%	-97% -104 to -94%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	1312	1103	455 344 to 525	142 24 to 204	10 -66 to 66	2056 2044 to 2063
Relative to reference year in %			-65% -74 to -60%	-89% -98 to -84%	-99% -105 to -95%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. 1.5°C-consistent benchmarks for enhancing Japan’s 2030 climate target. Climate Action Tracker.(2021). ↩
In order to guarantee that the derived emissions still achieve the global temperature goal when aggregated together across all assessed countries we assess the distribution of pathways from the median until the 5th percentile to form the higher and lower bound of the 1.5°C compatible range (60-72% below 2013 levels). Emission values are rounded to integers. In the Climate Action Tracker a slightly different methodological choice is used to define a 1.5°C compatible benchmark, where projections are harmonised on a different historical year and the median of the range of 1.5° compatible pathways is used - 62% reduction from 2013 levels by 2030. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. 1.5°C-consistent benchmarks for enhancing Japan’s 2030 climate target. Climate Action Tracker.(2021). ↩
The Government of Japan. The Long-term Strategy under the Paris Agreement. (2021). ↩
This would translate to a compound annual rate of reduction between 7-10% compared to the rate of reduction of 2.5% seen between 2013 and 2019. ↩
The upper value in the range implies negative emissions which could result from the use of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as BECCS. At the 25^th percentile, the 1.5°C compatible pathways show that around 44 MtCO₂e/yr of GHG emissions would need to be balanced out by 2050. Although the long-term strategy does not give an exact value for the anticipated level of removals from forest carbon sinks and other carbon dioxide removal technologies in 2050, the document does provide an estimate of net carbon removals in 2019 (45.9 MtCO₂).[^14] This seems to be in line with the projected 2030 GHG removals stated in the updated NDC (47.7 MtCO₂).[^15] ↩
The Government of Japan. Green Growth Strategy Through Achieving Carbon Neutrality in 2050. (2020). ↩
Fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) are a significant component of TPES in some 1.5°C compatible pathways, particularly after 2030. The median of these pathways has fossil fuels with CCS accounting for 29% of TPES in 2050, greater than the 17% share for unabated fossil fuels. ↩
Schreyer, F. et al. Common but differentiated leadership: strategies and challenges for carbon neutrality by 2050 across industrialized economies. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 114016 (2020). ↩
Shiraki, H., Sugiyama, M., Matsuo, Y., Komiyama, R. & Fujimori, S. The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector : implications from the EMF35 JMIP. Sustain. Sci. (2021) doi:10.1007/s11625-021-00917-y. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. 1.5°C-consistent benchmarks for enhancing Japan’s 2030 climate target. Climate Action Tracker.(2021). ↩
IEA. Japan 2021 - Energy Policy Review. Int. Energy Agency (2021). ↩
The low energy demand 1.5°C compatible pathway has TPES in 2050 at around 5 EJ. Japan’s energy consumption has been decreasing fairly steadily since reaching a peak in 2005 and recent reporting had projected a further decline in the coming years, both due to demographic changes and efficiency improvements.[^16]^,[^17] Projections from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry have TPES decreasing from 509 million kilolitres of oil equivalent (kl) in 2018 to 489 million kl by 2030. ↩

What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Japan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Japan's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Japan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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