What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

In 2025, Japan submitted a new NDC target of reductions in GHG emissions (incl. LULUCF) below gross 2013 levels to 60% in 2035 and 73% in 2040, an increase in ambition compared to the 2030 target. For comparability to our 1.5°C pathways, we assess these targets as at least 53% below 2013 levels by 2035 and 66% by 2040 (excl. LULUCF).1

Japan’s 2030 and 2035 targets (excluding LULUCF) are not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which would require deep and rapid emissions reductions this decade to at least 499 MtCO2e/yr in 2030 and 311 MtCO2e/yr in 2035.

Japan’s current policies are only projected to reduce emissions to 848-941 MtCO2e in 2030 and by 733-862 MtCO2e in 2035, excluding LULUCF.2

Japan plans to count approximately 100 MtCO2e of carbon credits towards its 2030 NDC goal and 200 MtCO2e towards the 2040 NDC target.3 1.5°C compatibility, however, would require international support provided by Japan to be on top of, rather than counted towards, its domestic emissions reductions.

Japan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

LULUCF

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology (excluding LULUCF)

    Data References (excluding LULUCF)

Long term pathway

In October 2020, Japan’s Prime Minister announced the country’s commitment to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050,4 which was reaffirmed in its long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement, released in October 2021.5 The Green Growth Strategy, released in June 2021, provides sector-level roadmaps towards net zero which will be facilitated by the 2 trillion-yen Green Innovation Fund.6

The government estimates that it would need to offset about 50-240 Mt/yr of residual emissions to achieve net zero by 2050, considering direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and forest sink measures as crucial strategies to balance residual GHG emissions. 7

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Japan’s remaining emissions to fall to at most 60 MtCO2e/yr by 2050 – a 96% reduction below 2013 levels. This would include bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) but exclude LULUCF. Instead of heavily relying on costly CDR technologies, Japan can achieve net zero more cost-effectively by further reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Japan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Japan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

LULUCF

Indicator
2013
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1393
1069
368 to 499
194 to 311
61 to 176
-42 to 60
Relative to reference year in %
-74 to -64%
-86 to -78%
-96 to -87%
-103 to -96%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
1264
933
281 to 425
112 to 267
0 to 133
-112 to -4
Relative to reference year in %
-78 to -66%
-91 to -79%
-100 to -89%
-109 to -100%
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1318
1019
298 to 437
130 to 255
2 to 130
-114 to 31
Relative to reference year in %
-77 to -67%
-90 to -81%
-100 to -90%
-109 to -98%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
1188
883
-70 to -62
-63 to -57
-59 to -46
-72 to -30
Relative to reference year in %
-106 to -105%
-105 to -105%
-105 to -104%
-106 to -103%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Cookie settings

Just like other websites, we use cookies to improve and personalize your experience. We collect standard Internet log information and aggregated data to analyse our traffic. Our preference cookies allow us to adapt our content to our audience interests.