Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Japan’s updated NDC, released in October 2021, targets emissions reductions of 46% below 2013 levels by 2030 (omitting LULUCF sequestration in the base year but including it in the target year).¹ When LULUCF is excluded, Japan’s NDC translates to a target of 42% below 2013 levels by 2030, or 813 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.²

Japan’s 2030 target is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which would require deep and rapid emissions reductions this decade to 485 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, equating to a reduction of 66% below 2013 levels, excluding LULUCF. Japan’s current policies are only projected to reduce emissions 31-38% below 2013 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF.³

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Japan to go further than its domestic emissions pathway and provide substantial support for emissions reductions in developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.

Japan plans to count international emissions reductions, to which it contributes or finances, towards its NDC goal, targeting a cumulative total of approximately 100 MtCO₂e by 2030. 1.5°C compatibility, however, would require international support provided by Japan to be on top of, rather than counted towards, its domestic emissions reductions.

Japan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2010
2013
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023

Long term pathway

In October 2020, Japan’s Prime Minister announced the country’s commitment to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050,⁴ which was reaffirmed in its long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement, released in October 2021.⁵ The Green Growth Strategy, released in June 2021, provides sector-level roadmaps towards net zero which will be facilitated by the 2 trillion-yen Green Innovation Fund.⁶

Although the government doesn’t specify the level of residual emissions it anticipates in 2050, it cites direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and forest sink measures as intended strategies to balance residual GHG emissions.

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Japan’s remaining emissions to fall to 61 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 – a 96% reduction below 2013 levels. This would include BECCS but exclude LULUCF.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Japan. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

2010
2013
2015

Indicator	2013 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	1405	1168	372 to 485	207 to 319	72 to 175	-53 to 61
Relative to reference year in %			-74 to -65%	-85 to -77%	-95 to -88%	-104 to -96%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	1263	1016	283 to 421	116 to 266	1 to 134	-109 to -2
Relative to reference year in %			-78 to -67%	-91 to -79%	-100 to -89%	-109 to -100%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2023
- Download data as CSV

Government of Japan, “Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC),” October 2021. ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Japan. November 2023.,” Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, 2023 ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Japan. November 2023.” ↩
IEA, “Japan 2021 Energy Policy Review” (IEA, May 2021). ↩
Government of Japan, “The Long-Term Strategy under the Paris Agreement,” October 2021. ↩
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, “Green Growth Strategy Through Achieving Carbon Neutrality in 2050” (Government of Japan, June 18, 2021). ↩

What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Japan's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Japan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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