What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
The fuel mix in Japan’s transport sector has not appreciably changed in three decades, with oil meeting almost all energy demand at 97% in 2022. Electricity supplied a small share of the transport energy mix at 2%, which is only fractionally higher than it was in 1990. 1.5°C compatible pathways would see emissions fall to 22-34% below 2013 levels by 2030.
Japan's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The transport sector was responsible for 16% of Japan’s emissions in 2022. Direct CO2 emissions from the sector peaked in 2001 thanks to improvements in fuel efficiency standards under the country’s Top Runner Program as well as exhaust emission standards.1 The energy intensity of passenger cars and light trucks decreased by 22% between 2000 and 2018.2 By focussing on policies around improving fossil fuel efficiency rather than supporting deeper electrification in the transport sector, Japan is not aligning with 1.5ºC pathways.
By 2035, Japan aims for 100% of new passenger vehicle sales to be electric, fuel cell, and hybrid electric vehicles.3 However, despite the global EV sales growth, Japan’s EV sales fell 33% year-on-year in 2024 and its EV share of the domestic auto market fell below 2%, the lowest among major developed economies.4,5 Rollout of EVs has been slow in Japan due to the domestic auto industry’s focus on hybrid vehicles (HEV), slow buildout of charging infrastructure, higher cost relative to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, and inflexible consumer preferences for ICE and HEVs.6 In 2021, the government introduced subsidies of up to 800,000 yen for electric vehicles, which were upgraded to 850,000 yen in 2024.7,8
The Net-Zero Commitments pathway, which reaches global net zero CO2 emissions around 2050 through stringent climate policies and innovation, would see biofuels to grow in the energy mix from less than 1% in 2021 to 14% in 2050. 1.5°C compatible pathways would see electricity contribute 40-53% of fuel mix in 2050.
Japan's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Japan
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
186
|
144 to
167
|
101 to
132
|
56 to
86
|
13 to
44
|
2054 to
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-23 to
-10%
|
-46 to
-29%
|
-70 to
-54%
|
-93 to
-76%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
2
|
6 to
7
|
13 to
20
|
24 to
34
|
41 to
53
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
1
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
5
|
6 to
7
|
12 to
16
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
4
|
2 to
7
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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