What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
The fuel mix in Japan’s transport sector has not appreciably changed in three decades, with oil meeting almost all energy demand at 97% in 2021. Electricity supplied a small share of the transport energy mix at 2.4%, which is only fractionally higher than it was in 1990 at 2%.
Japan's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The transport sector was responsible for 15% of Japan’s emissions in 2021. Direct CO2 emissions from the sector peaked in 20011 thanks to improvements in fuel efficiency standards under the country’s Top Runner Program. The energy intensity of passenger cars and light trucks decreased by 22% between 2000 and 2018.2 1.5°C compatible pathways would see emissions fall to 24-34% below 2013 levels by 2030.
Japan is targeting 100% of new passenger vehicle sales being electrically driven by 2035, encompassing electric, fuel cell, and hybrid electric vehicles.3 However, Japan is the only major electric car market where sales fell for a second year in a row in 2019.4 In 2021, the government introduced subsidies of up to 800,000 yen for electric vehicles.5
Although biofuels made up less than 1% of the transport fuel mix in 2021,6 biofuel use in the transport sector has grown 10% per year on average over the last decade. The Net-Zero Commitments pathway, which reaches global net zero CO2 emissions around 2050 through stringent climate policies and innovation, would see this growth rate continue until 2050 (9% per year) to reach a tenfold increase in the energy supplied by biofuels.
Japan's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Japan
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
183
|
144 to
167
|
101 to
132
|
56 to
86
|
13 to
44
|
2054 to
2067
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-21 to
-9%
|
-45 to
-28%
|
-69 to
-53%
|
-93 to
-76%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
6 to
7
|
13 to
20
|
24 to
34
|
41 to
53
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
5
|
6 to
7
|
12 to
16
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
4
|
2 to
7
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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