What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Japan’s emissions reached 1133 MtCO2e in 2022, excluding LULUCF, and stem primarily from fossil fuel combustion within the energy sector (87%).1 The power sector was responsible for the largest share of total emissions in 2022 at 34%, excluding LULUCF. Power sector emissions spiked between 2011 and 2013 following the Fukushima accident when fossil fuel generation replaced nuclear power but have been falling since 2013 due to reintroduction of nuclear power and increased integration of solar and wind. Power sector emissions in 2022 were 2% below 2010 levels.
Emissions from industrial energy use accounted for 22% of total emissions excluding LULUCF in 2022. The CO2 emissions from industrial energy use have been declining for the last decade until 2022, with a temporary 5% rebound in 2021 from 2020 levels. Industrial process emissions were responsible for 8.2% of emissions in 2022.
Absolute emissions from the transport and buildings sectors continue to steadily decline, while the share of total emissions has remained steady, accounting for 16% and 10% of total emissions in 2022, respectively. A small share (3%) of total emissions comes from the agricultural sector, mostly methane.
Japan's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions. Individual sector rounding may lead to small inconsistencies in total sum.
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Japan’s economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels, which accounted for almost 89% of primary energy supply in 2022. Meanwhile, renewables supplied just 7.5% despite Japan’s significant solar and massive offshore wind potential.2 Oil, used mainly in transport, was the most used fuel source at 39% of the energy mix in 2022.3
Coal made up 28% of the primary energy mix in 2022 and is used mainly in power and industry. Japan has committed to phase out ‘inefficient’ coal plants by 2030, but this still leaves room for unabated coal in the energy and power mix towards FY2040.4 Gas made up 21.4% of the energy mix and is predominantly used for electricity generation. Japan relies heavily on LNG imports and was the world’s largest importer of fossil gas in 2022, followed by China.5
Nuclear power supplied 15% of Japan’s primary energy mix until the Fukushima nuclear accident in early 2011, after which all plants were suspended.6 Consequently, the share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix rose from 81% in 2010 to 95% in 2012. The share of nuclear has grown slowly to stand at 4% in 2022.
Targets and commitments
2035 and 2040 Target in 2025 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- 60% emissions reduction in FY 2035 and 73% in FY 2040, respectively, below FY 2013 levels. 7
When excluding LULUCF, Japan’s target translates to:
- 53% below 2013 or 658 MtCO2e by 2035 and 66% below or 470MtCO2e by 2040.8
2030 Target in 2021 NDC:
As expressed by the country:
- Reduce emissions by 46% in fiscal year (FY) 2030 (50% as an aspirational target) from its FY 2013 levels. 9
When excluding LULUCF, Japan’s target translates to:
- 41% below 2013 emissions or 823 MtCO2e by 2030.10
Long-term target
As formulated by the country:
- Net-zero by 2050 11