What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Japan’s emissions were 1170 MtCO2e in 2021, excluding LULUCF, and stem primarily from fossil fuel combustion within the energy sector (87%).1 The power sector was responsible for the largest share of total emissions in 2021 at 34%, excluding LULUCF. Power sector emissions have been falling since their peak in 2013, after rising rapidly following the Fukushima accident in 2011 as nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuel generation. Power sector emissions in 2021 were 4% below 2010 levels.
Emissions from industrial energy use accounted for 23% of total emissions excluding LULUCF in 2021.2 While CO2 emissions from industrial energy use have been declining for the last decade they rebounded 5% in 2021 from 2020 levels.3 Industrial process emissions were responsible for 9% of emissions in 2021.4
Emissions from the transport and building sectors continue to steadily decline, accounting for 15% and 12% of total emissions, respectively. A small share (3%) of total emissions comes from the agricultural sector mostly methane.5
Japan's 2021 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Japan’s economy is highly dependent on fossil fuels, which accounted for 88% of primary energy supply in 2021. Meanwhile, renewables supplied just 7%. Oil, used mainly in transport, was the most used fuel source at 38% of the energy mix in 2021; however, its use in Japan continues to decline.6
Coal made up 28% of the primary energy mix in 2021 and is used mainly in power and industry.7 Japan has committed to phase out “inefficient” coal plants by 2030, but this still leaves room for unabated coal in the energy mix at this date.8 Gas made up 22% of the energy mix and is predominantly used for electricity generation. Japan relies heavily on LNG imports and was the world’s largest importer of fossil gas in 2022, followed by China.9
Nuclear power supplied 15% of Japan’s primary energy mix until the Fukushima nuclear accident in early 2011, after which all plants were suspended.10 Consequently, the share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix rose from 81% in 2010 to 95% in 2012. The share of nuclear has grown slowly to stand at 5% in 2021.
Economy-Wide Targets
NDC Target:
As expressed by the country:
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Reduce emissions 46% below 2013 levels by 2030.11
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Targeting absolute emissions of 766 MtCO2e emissions per year by 2030, including LULUCF.
When excluding LULUCF, Japan’s NDC target translates to reducing emissions by 42% below 2013 levels by 2030.12
- Or absolute emissions of 813 MtCO2e per year by 2030.
Sector Coverage:
- Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF
Long-term target:
As formulated by the country:
- Net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050