Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Ethiopia’s conditional NDC translates into emissions of 213 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 when excluding LULUCF emissions, or 75% above 2015 levels.¹ With international support, Ethiopia will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and domestic emissions level. Paris compatible pathways show emissions reductions of 10-37% below 2015 levels or 76-110 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF.

Ethiopia has committed to funding 20% of its mitigation target in its NDC and to increase its ambition in subsequent years through various sectors as it seeks to align all sectors to climate resilience.²

Ethiopia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Ethiopia has indicated its goal to become ‘carbon neutral’ but has not yet announced a net zero CO₂ target, nor provided clarity on its scope. Ethiopia is in the process of developing a long-term strategy.³

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require GHG emissions excluding LULUCF to reduce by 22% (10-37%) below 2015 levels by 2050.⁴ This requires a focus on decarbonising major emitting sectors namely agriculture and energy, and stringent policies in the land sector, to reduce emissions and further become a sink, through the halting of deforestation.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Although Ethiopia relies on a high amount of renewable energy (around 90% of its total primary energy consumption), close to 88% in 2017 comes from traditional biomass (the burning of charcoal and firewood) mostly used for cooking.⁵^,⁶ While the country will need to keep up its share of renewables, there will need to be a shift away from biomass to other conventional renewables sources such as solar, wind and hydro. Reducing biomass as a source of energy will steer emissions reductions in the LULUCF sector, by reducing deforestation.⁷

Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy initiative (CRGE) states that the country aims to increase electricity supply at a rate of 14% per annum mainly from hydropower, geothermal and wind with ‘virtually zero GHG emissions’.⁸ With a current installed capacity of 4244 MW, of which over 95% (4140 MW) is renewable (hydro, wind and geothermal), this looks like a realistic target.⁹^,¹⁰^,¹¹

Its draft energy policy includes increased electrification as well as grid reliability, increased access to modern cooking technologies and promotion of renewables.¹²^,¹³^,¹⁴^,¹⁵ Due to high initial costs, limited access, monthly billing and low reliability for electricity combined with cultural factors,¹⁶ electric cooking, LPG uptake, biogas, and improved biofuel stoves uptake has been slow in comparison to kerosene, charcoal and firewood.¹⁷^,¹⁸

While Ethiopia’s Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II) Ethiopia had planned to source more than 90% of its increased capacity in energy production from renewables by 2020 the country still sees coal and nuclear in its future as well as continued importation of fossil fuels. This risks the creation of high-cost stranded assets, despite huge renewable energy potential estimated at >80 TWh in 2030.¹⁹^,²⁰ Electricity generation reached 44% and power 66% of their respective targets by 2017, and access to electricity had reached 57% coverage in 2017 whereas the country targets 90% by 2020.²¹^,²²^,²³^,²⁴

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Ethiopia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	151	166	113 92 to 126	100 80 to 105	90 70 to 107
Relative to reference year in %			-25% -39 to -17%	-34% -47 to -31%	-41% -54 to -29%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	19	25	19 16 to 22	11 6 to 17	5 0 to 13	2062
Relative to reference year in %			5% -15 to 21%	-41% -69 to -11%	-75% -98 to -28%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018). ↩
Beyene, G. E., Kumie, A., Edwards, R. & Troncoso, K. Opportunities for transition to clean household energy in Ethiopia Application of the WHO Household Energy Assessment Rapid Tool (HEART). (2018). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Ethiopian Electric Power. Power Generation. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021). ↩
World Nuclear News. Ethiopia, Russia extend cooperation in nuclear energy. Nuclear Policies. (2019). ↩
IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). ↩
For example, it is difficult to prepare Injera, Ethiopia’s staple on a gas or electric cooker. ↩
Beyene, G. E., Kumie, A., Edwards, R. & Troncoso, K. Opportunities for transition to clean household energy in Ethiopia Application of the WHO Household Energy Assessment Rapid Tool (HEART). (2018). ↩
N Scott, T Jones & S Batchelor. Ethiopia; Cooking transitions: An analysis of Multi-Tier Framework Data for insights into transitions to modern energy cooking. (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016). ↩
GERD Coordination Office. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018). ↩
Ethiopian Electric Power. Power Generation. (2020). ↩
A review of GTPII is still underway. This will shed light on the current situation after the end of the GTP II in 2020 and provide a basis for GTPIII or a successor framework. ↩

What is Ethiopia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Ethiopia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Ethiopia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Ethiopia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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