Current Situation

Last update: 1 December 2023

Emissions profile

Ethiopia’s emissions were at 147 MtCO₂e/yr in 2013 and are expected to grow to over 400 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 in a business as usual scenario.¹

Agriculture is a key emitting sector, accounting for over 50% of emissions in 2013, followed by energy (25%) and LULUCF (17%). Emissions in the agriculture sector are mostly from livestock – estimates put animal head count at over 150 million including cattle, sheep, goats and others. Agriculture is the main contributor to methane and nitrous oxide emissions, with the latter mostly coming from crop cultivation.²^,³

The energy sector is the second most emitting sector, with emissions mainly driven by the burning of biomass for energy use such as household cooking.

LULUCF emissions account for 17% of total GHG emissions in 2013, and have mostly been from conversion of forested land for agricultural use and wood fuel consumption. Under business as usual, the key emitting sectors in 2030 are projected to be energy and livestock, contributing 91% of GHG emissions.⁴

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available LULUCF data point from 2013

Data References
- PRIMAP-Hist 2019. Energy sub-sectors emissions based on the IEA CO2 Fuel 2019. Inventory year: 2017.
- LULUCF emissions: latest available data as reported by the Climate Action Tracker 2020 update.

Energy system

Biomass makes up a large share of Ethiopia’s energy mix, accounting for nearly 90% of generation.⁵ Ethiopia’s NDC identifies this as a main concern in its efforts towards sustainable energy for all.⁶ There is relatively low access to clean and sustainable energy with 2018 data showing that access rates were at 57% in 2017 having risen from 54.25% in 2015.⁷ Ethiopia’s hydro potential remains among the highest in Africa with a planned 13.5 GW capacity by 2040.⁸

As of 2018, oil and coal accounted for about 9.47% of the total energy supply with oil at 8.59% and coal at 0.88%.⁹ This is mostly fossil fuel imports to power the transport and industrial sectors. Road transport account for 75% of emissions from the transport sector.¹⁰^,¹¹^,¹² Ethiopia recently unveiled its 10 year development plan that outlines energy as a key driver for its development.¹³ This was followed by a draft energy policy that prioritises increased access to energy for the poor, and emissions reductions driven by the eradication of the use of biomass.¹⁴^,¹⁵

Targets and commitments

Note: NDC indicates that HFCs will be investigated at a later stage.

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Baseline scenario target

NDC target

Conditional target:

12% below business as usual levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).¹⁶
- Limiting GHG emissions to 361 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (incl. LULUCF).¹⁷
365 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).¹⁸
- 200% above 2015 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).¹⁹

Unconditional target:

54% below business as usual by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).²⁰
- Limiting GHG emissions to 221 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).²¹
213 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).²²
- 75% above 2015 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).²³^,²⁴

Market mechanisms

The NDC states that the government is interested in pursuing provisions under Article 6 with like-minded partners (governments) as a way of meeting its targets.

Long-term target

Ethiopia’s Low-carbon development strategy, which is currently in development, targets carbon neutrality, but no target year has been stated yet.²⁵

Sectoral targets

Energy

Target of 117 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.²⁶
Increase total electricity consumption per capita from 100 kWh to 1269 kWh in 2030, increasing efficiency as well as reliability of energy sources.²⁷
Household biomass use defined as an area that needs to be addressed through use of efficient cookstoves, modern cooking technologies and increased connectivity to the grid.²⁸
Efficient cookstoves are assessed to have a potential to reduce emissions by 50 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 in addition to reducing indoor air pollution and promoting gender equality.²⁹

Power

Increase electricity access to 90% of its population by 2020.³⁰

Transport

In this sector Ethiopia set out plans for development of electric rail transport, establishing fuel efficiency standards, fossil fuel phase out with alternatives including retiring of thermal plants and improved urban transport by 2030.³¹

Buildings

Increase grid access and off-grid renewables such as solar and wind as well as better waste management.³²^,³³^,³⁴

Waste

Target of 6.54 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.³⁵
Ethiopia plans on enhancing waste management practices to reduce emissions in this sector.³⁶^,³⁷

Agriculture

Target of 28.41 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.³⁸
Promote use of organic fertilisers in crop production and setting up an monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework amongst other measures.³⁹

LULUCF

Target of 17.27 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.⁴⁰^,⁴¹
The National Green Development programme aims to achieve a target of 4 billion trees planted in the country.
3.5 billion trees have been planted so far across the country.⁴²

Industry

Target of –0.13 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.⁴³
This is to be achieved through efficient technologies and innovations across the value chain for a ‘climate resilient green industry’.⁴⁴

Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018). ↩
IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018). ↩
IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018). ↩
IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021). ↩
World Nuclear News. Ethiopia, Russia extend cooperation in nuclear energy. Nuclear Policies. (2019). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia 2030: The Pathway to Prosperity Ten Years Perspective Development Plan (2021-2030). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
NDC indicates that forestry covers land and managed soils. ↩
National Green Development. Stats – National Green Development. (2021). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020). ↩
Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016). ↩

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