What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Australia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Australia’s industrial emissions are regulated through the Safeguard Mechanism which was reformed in 2023. The Safeguard Mechanism imposes declining net baselines for facilities within the scope of the mechanism but allows unlimited use of Australian Carbon Credit Units rather than making genuine emissions reductions. The 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here see direct CO2 emissions from industry energy demand (excluding energy use by fossil fuel industries) fall 42-65% below 2021 levels by 2030.
The Net Zero Commitments and Deep Electrification pathways achieve the most rapid reductions in both energy CO2 and process-related emissions. The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions in wind and solar over the past decade and the potential for future progress, reaches a high share of electricity this decade at 47% by 2030, up from 30% in 2021. Substantial hydrogen use also emerges in these pathways, growing to 12-15% of the industrial energy mix by 2040.
While we do not assess emissions from fossil fuel production here, Australia’s LNG and coal industries account for 15% of domestic emissions, excluding LULUCF, and contribute significantly to global emissions via its exports. 3 GHG emissions from fossil fuel production, including fugitive emissions, grew by 33% between 2015 and 2019, driven by a rapid expansion of LNG production.4
Australia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Australia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
48
|
17 to
28
|
7 to
23
|
0 to
14
|
-2 to
3
|
2037 to
2046
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-65 to
-42%
|
-85 to
-52%
|
-100 to
-71%
|
-104 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
34 to
47
|
42 to
50
|
43 to
54
|
49 to
68
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
per cent
|
40
|
59 to
72
|
68 to
80
|
82 to
87
|
86 to
97
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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