What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
The transport sector accounts for the largest share of total final energy consumption in Australia at 38% in 2021,1 with oil accounting for 96% of the energy mix.2 Australia introduced a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard in 2024, but has not set a phase-out date for fossil fuel vehicles. Cars and light commercial vehicles produced 60% of transport emissions in 2023 – vehicles that could be replaced with electric models.3
Australia's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, would see electricity demand in the transport sector grow five-fold between 2021 and 2030, reaching 60% of the energy mix by 2050. The Deep Electrification pathway achieves this in part by strong support for electric vehicles (EVs) through subsidies and the rollout of charging infrastructure. The government has committed to a National EV Charging Network by 2026; however, EV uptake remains slow with battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs accounting for 8.5% of new car sales in 2023.4
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which limits warming to 1.5°C with only a minimal amount of carbon dioxide removal, would see oil demand reduced by three-quarters by 2050. In this pathway, oil is displaced by a growing share of electricity (52%) and biofuels (15%). Remaining oil consumption in 2050 would likely be concentrated in long-distance transport such as aviation and shipping. It could further be reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not captured in these pathways.
Australia's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
88
|
80 to
89
|
53 to
73
|
29 to
56
|
14 to
35
|
2059 to
2060
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-9 to
1%
|
-40 to
-17%
|
-67 to
-36%
|
-84 to
-60%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
7 to
10
|
15 to
27
|
27 to
44
|
46 to
60
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
5 to
16
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
3
|
1 to
5
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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