Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

Australia submitted an updated NDC in 2022 with a target of reducing GHG emissions 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 including LULUCF.¹ When LULUCF is excluded, this translates to a target of 422 MtCO₂e by 2030 or a 20% reduction relative to 2005 levels.² 1.5°C compatible pathways would require 2030 domestic emissions of 296 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, or 44% below 2005 levels.

When including LULUCF, Australia’s total emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would fall to 213 MtCO₂e, or 60% below 2005 levels by 2035. Australia would need to strengthen its 2030 target from its current NDC, submitted in 2022, and submit a 2035 target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible. For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.

A fair share contribution to reducing global GHG emissions in line with the Paris Agreement would require Australia to go further than its domestic target and provide substantial support for emissions reductions in developing countries.

Australia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

Target Year

2030
2035

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology (ecluding LULUCF)
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References (ecluding LULUCF)
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
- NDC incl. LULUCF: Australia assumptions

Long term pathway

The Australian Government has a target for net zero emissions by 2050, which was enshrined into law in September 2022.³ The current long-term emissions reduction plan, released in 2021 under the previous Government, only reduces emissions to 75% below 2005 levels by 2050 including LULUCF before consideration of 10-20% “international and domestic offsets”, which generally do not reduce emissions. A deliberate 15% gap to net zero is left to unspecified “technology breakthroughs” rather than direct government action.⁴^,⁵

Paris Agreement compatible pathways would require Australia’s 2050 emissions excluding LULUCF to be in the range of 13-73 MtCO₂e/yr or 86-98% below 2005 levels excluding LULUCF. To get to net zero with this level of residual GHG emissions, land-based and technological carbon dioxide removal would need to be in the range of -13 to -73 MtCO₂e in 2050. Sequestration of CO₂ from land was reported to be -89 MtCO₂e in 2024 and projected to be -78 MtCO₂e in 2035.⁶^,⁷

Although balancing residual GHG emissions with removals is necessary to reach net zero, the government is relying heavily on projected LULUCF sink levels, which they regularly recalculate, to reach their emissions reduction targets. Relying on unrealistic and uncertain LULUCF-based removals undermines the need for direct emissions reductions and a fossil fuel phase out.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2023. Last inventory year: 2021.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Australia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

Indicator	2005 Reference year	2021	2030	2035	2040	2050
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	527	524	202 to 296	155 to 213	95 to 143	13 to 73
Relative to reference year in %			-62 to -44%	-71 to -60%	-82 to -73%	-98 to -86%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	363	369	126 to 194	54 to 129	-7 to 64	-65 to 0
Relative to reference year in %			-65 to -47%	-85 to -64%	-102 to -82%	-118 to -100%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2024
- Download data as CSV

Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, “Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution Communication 2022” (Australian Government, June 16, 2022). ↩
Climate Action Tracker, “Australia. November 2024.,” Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, 2024 ↩
Parliament of Australia, “Climate Change Bill 2022” (2022) ↩
Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, “Australia’s Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan: Modelling and Analysis” (Australian Government, 2021). ↩
Note that Australia’s LT-LEDS consolidates and generalises the underlying modelling data for “The Plan”, which is the central scenario presented in the LT-LEDS. The modelling results for “The Plan” include the following reductions in 2050 relative to 2005: 45% from energy and agriculture sector reductions, 14% due to reduced deforestation (occurring prior to 2020), 6% BECCS, 4% domestic land offsets, 15% international offsets, and a 15% gap deliberately left to “technology breakthroughs” ↩
Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, “Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: March 2024,” August 2024 ↩
Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, “Australia’s Emissions Projections 2023” (Australian Government, December 2023). ↩

What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Raising ambition

Australia's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Australia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Cookie settings

Statistics

Google