What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
Energy demand in buildings is primarily met by electricity and fossil gas, which accounted for 61% and 25% of the energy mix in 2021, respectively.1 The government refused a call from the Climate Change Authority in 2023 to phase out new and existing gas connections for residential and small commercial buildings.2 The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, which requires faster and deeper reductions in fossil fuels due to limited reliance on carbon dioxide removal, reduces fossil gas use by a third this decade, with no fossil gas use in the buildings sector by 2050.
Australia's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Under all 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here, fossil fuels are displaced by a growing share of electrification which reaches 93-95% by 2050. This could be facilitated by rooftop solar, in which Australia is a world leader, supported by household batteries. As of 2024, one-third of detached homes in the National Electricity Market, which supplies 80% of the country’s power, had rooftop solar installed. In the first quarter of 2024, rooftop solar provided 13% of the National Electricity Market’s total generation, with power exceeding household demand exported back to the grid during the day.3
The Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade, would see building electrification rise to 68% by 2030 and to 95% by 2050.
Australia's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
14
|
11 to
12
|
7 to
10
|
3 to
5
|
0 to
2
|
2039 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-21 to
-14%
|
-50 to
-29%
|
-79 to
-64%
|
-100 to
-86%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
61
|
66 to
68
|
74 to
76
|
84 to
87
|
93 to
95
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
3
|
2 to
2
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
3
|
1 to
2
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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