What is Mozambique's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Mozambique’s power sector is dominated by hydropower, alongside minor production capacities from gas and oil thermal plants.1 86% of the country’s electricity production in 2015 was sourced from hydropower, followed by 13% from gas, and 1% from oil.2 Fossil gas has seen an increase in the past years reaching a level of 20% in 2019.
If this trend continues, it could lock the country in a carbon intensive pathway. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Mozambique would need to reduce its reliance on natural gas and oil from 20% of the power mix in 2019 to a maximum of 2% by 2030. Similarly, carbon intensity would need to drop from 80 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to a maximum of 10 gCO₂/kWh by 2030, and full decarbonisation by 2033, representing an 89-100% reduction in the sector’s carbon intensity.
This stands in contrast with the country’s NDC target of adding at least 450 MW of new natural gas capacities by 2025. Other reports indicate the intention to increase natural gas supplies to 3.25 GW by 2030.3 Mozambique is heavily investing in natural gas, and is expected to become the world’s third largest natural gas exporter by 2023, which puts the country at risk of being stuck with stranded assets requiring high upfront investments, considering that natural gas would need to be fully phased out in the following decade.4
Mozambique’s NDC also aims to promote renewable energy sources with a total capacity of 567 MW by 2025. With Mozambique’s total installed generating capacity at 2.6 GW in 2016, it is likely that the aforementioned renewable energy target would need to be enhanced to comply with 1.5°C compatible pathways, especially when the intended addition of natural gas thermal plants are included.
Mozambique's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon intensity of Mozambique’s power sector would need to reduce from 80gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to zero by 2033 at the latest to be 1.5°C compatible. This could be driven by the complete phase-out of natural gas from the power mix by no later than 2033, and other unabated fossil fuels around 2030. Renewable energies should contribute 100% of the national power mix by 2040, already reaching a level of 79% in 2019, mostly based on hydropower.
The power sector decarbonisation will almost exclusively be driven by the uptake of renewable energy, with solar, hydropower and wind power offering the greatest potentials and sources for upscaling.5
However, Mozambique’s intentions to considerably increase its natural gas production capacities, as indicated by the ongoing USD 20 billion Mozambique LNG Project, and the target to construct 3.25 GW of natural gas thermal plants by 2030, risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway and creating stranded assets.6
Mozambique's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Mozambique to be on the order of approximately USD 0.9 to 4.3 billion by 2030 and 2.7 to 16.9 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Mozambique's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mozambique
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
85
|
0 to
10
|
-7 to
0
|
-24 to
-19
|
2027 to
2033
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-100 to
-89%
|
-108 to
-100%
|
-128 to
-123%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
20
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2028 to
2033
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
79
|
98 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
21
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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