Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Through its updated NDC, Mozambique commits to a conditional emissions reduction of 40 MtCO₂e between 2020 and 2025 cumulatively (excl. LULUCF).¹ This would translate in emissions reaching 42 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or an 11% increase in emissions relative to 2015 levels (38 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2030.²

While analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate a wide range of potential emissions levels by 2030, they reflect the need for emissions levels to reach between 23-36 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions. This is equivalent to an emissions reduction of 2-14 MtCO₂e/yr, or between 6-38% below 2015 levels.

It should be noted, however, that by the country’s own declaration, the targets stated in the NDC are estimates with a significant level of uncertainty, and will be updated based on results from the 2022 Biennial Update Report (BUR).³

It is also noteworthy that afforestation-related emissions and mitigation are not accounted for in the NDC. By some estimates, LULUCF is the largest emitting sector in the country.2 Excluding this sector may therefore significantly alter Mozambique’s mitigation target, and its subsequent trajectory in relation to the Paris Agreement and 1.5°C compatible pathways.

Mozambique's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In its updated NDC, Mozambique articulates that it has received support from the NDC Partnership – Climate Action Enhancement Package to develop its Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy (2020-2050).⁴ However, this is currently not publicly available.

By 2050, the country would need to reduce its emissions to between 18-26 MtCO₂e to be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, equivalent to a 32-54% reduction in emissions relative to 2015 levels.⁵ Analysed scenarios show the energy sector decarbonising first, between 2040 and 2060, while others show the IPPU sector being the first to fully decarbonise by around 2040. In all scenarios, agriculture persists as a significant source of emissions beyond 2050, while the waste sector is also a minor contributor in certain scenarios.

Efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including expanding and accelerating the country’s commitments to limit deforestation and restore forested lands, could create effective national carbon sinks. This can further be driven by reducing traditional biomass consumption and subsequently provide negative emissions allowing to balance its remaining emissions in the long-term.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

While 80% of Mozambique’s energy mix is shown as being renewable in 2019, the vast majority of this is traditional biomass such as wood and charcoal, which have negative health and sustainability implications. 82% of the energy used in Mozambique in 2011 was in the form of traditional biomass, with government projections indicating that this would not change in the following years.⁶ Mozambique’s uptake of renewable energy would therefore need to facilitate a transition from traditional biofuels to electrification at the household level.

1.5°C compatible pathways would see the share of fossil fuels in Mozambique’s primary energy mix reduce from approximately 20% in 2019 to a maximum of around 2% by 2040, and ultimately be fully phased out by 2050. In 2018, biofuels and waste, electricity, and oil products accounted for most of the energy consumption in the country, and thus hold the greatest potential for achieving significant emissions reductions.⁷

Lower penetration of renewables would require the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDRs) such as land sinks or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance residual emissions in the long term. Some models show that up to 10% of the energy mix could be sourced from BECCS between 2040-2050. Such technologies are not yet available in the country, and would require high upfront costs, which could be avoided by implementing stringent policies to reduce land sector emissions.⁸

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Mozambique. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	38	44	27 23 to 36	23 20 to 28	23 17 to 26
Relative to reference year in %			-27% -38 to -6%	-39% -47 to -26%	-39% -54 to -32%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	7	10	9 7 to 10	5 2 to 7	2 1 to 6	2066
Relative to reference year in %			19% -8 to 37%	-36% -70 to -3%	-75% -89 to -19%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021). ↩
See assumptions here: https://1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#moz-ndc ↩
Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021). ↩
Government of Mozambique. Updated First National Determined Contribution of Mozambique. (2021). ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩
van der Plas, R. J. et al. Mozambique Biomass Energy Strategy. (2012). ↩
Mokveld, K. & von Eije, S. Final Energy Report Mozambique. (2018). ↩
Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. ↩

What is Mozambique's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Mozambique's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Mozambique's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Mozambique's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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