What is Mozambique's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
The transport sector has the third highest share of total final consumption of energy in Mozambique (around 14.6% in 2019).1 The sector is powered almost exclusively by oil. With the vehicle population growing rapidly (average annual rate of 51% between 2012-2017),2 it is projected that the energy demand – and subsequently emissions – from this sector will continue to rise.3
Mozambique's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Mozambique needs to fully decarbonise the sector between 2047-2050. This can be achieved through the rapid uptake of electricity, among other policies. The share of electricity in the transport sector would need to increase from 0% in 2019 to 6-21% by 2030 and 25-44% by 2050.
The Government of Mozambique has expressed its support for a shift towards electric mobility in the country, and discussed a draft electric mobility strategy with various stakeholders in 2019.4 However, the transport sector interventions expressed in Mozambique’s NDC primarily pertain to the introduction and promotion of fossil gas-powered vehicles and buses.5 Given the carbon emissions associated with fossil gas, such policies are unlikely to bring Mozambique’s transport sector in line with 1.5°C.
Mozambique's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Mozambique
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
4
|
3 to
4
|
2 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
2047 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-9 to
3%
|
-44 to
-43%
|
-99 to
-72%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
6 to
21
|
17 to
36
|
25 to
44
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
11
|
4 to
59
|
10 to
62
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
23
|
34 to
53
|
54 to
55
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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