Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

South Korea’s enhanced NDC sets a 2030 GHG emissions reduction target of 40% below 2018 level, including the use of international credits and land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). The previous NDC set an emissions reduction target of 24.4% below 2017 levels by 2030 (incl. credits and LULUCF).¹ In terms of absolute emissions level, the 2021 NDC translates to 441 MtCO₂e/yr (incl. credits and LULUCF) in 2030.²

If contributions from credits and LULUCF sinks are excluded, South Korea domestic 2021 NDC equates to a 32% reduction below 2018 levels or 501 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.³

South Korea’s 40% emissions reduction target is not compatible with a 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway. The country would need to reduce its annual GHG emissions to 62% (54-68%) below 2018 GHG emissions levels, reaching emissions levels of 288 (243-344) MtCO₂e by 2030, excluding LULUCF.

A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require South Korea to go further than its domestic emissions reduction target, and provide substantial financial or other support for emission reductions to poor countries on top of its domestic reductions.

South Korea's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2010
2015
2017

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In October 2020, President Moon Jae-in announced South Korea’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. This long-term target was later enshrined into law under the Carbon Neutrality Act.⁴

To be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, South Korea’s emissions would need to peak immediately, and be reduced by 92-95% from 2017 levels by 2050, or in absolute values, 41-57 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2050.⁵ South Korea will need to balance its remaining emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as from the land sector. When considering LULUCF sinks at their current levels (close to –41 MtCO₂e/yr) net zero GHG could be reached by mid-century.⁶

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

In 2017, CO₂ emissions from energy combustion represent 85% of South Korea’s total GHG emissions. Although the government has announced a ban on new coal-fired power plants, unit level analysis of the country’s 9^th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand shows that coal is set to be phased out in 2054.⁷ This is almost 25 years later than the phase-out year suggested by the 1.5°C pathways analysed here. Moreover, the 9^th Basic Plan envisions converting several existing coal plants to combined cycle natural gas plants.⁸

Power and industry will be key sectors in driving the decarbonisation of primary energy demand, followed by transport. For 1.5°C compatibility, the use of fossil fuels should be halved by 2040 and reduced further in subsequent decades. Zero emissions sources (renewables, nuclear) should make up 43-66% of primary energy by 2050. Higher shares of renewables would reduce reliance on other technologies, such as fossil fuel CCS, linked to high costs, social acceptance, and safety issues.

The Korean Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS) is one of the country’s main cross sectoral policy instruments. Recently having increased in size, the K-ETS currently covers 69 subsectors within the following 6 sectors: heat and power, industry, buildings, transportation, waste, and the public sector. The current phase of the scheme, covering 2021-2025, has an average annual cap of 610 MtCO₂e and covers 74% of total emissions (excluding LULUCF).⁹^,¹⁰

The power sector will play a large role in decarbonising the energy sector, particularly because decarbonisation efforts in other sectors, such as transportation, will rely on electrification.¹¹ However, South Korea also plans to utilise hydrogen fuel for transportation, ushering in the world’s first hydrogen law in 2021.¹² SK Group, the country’s largest oil refiner, is set to play a major role in hydrogen development.¹³ The government has also announced plans to build an 8.2 GW offshore wind farm, which would be the world’s largest when built.¹⁴^,¹⁵ Apart from providing renewable electricity to the nation’s power grid, the wind farm also has the potential to produce green ammonia as a fuel for maritime shipping, another sector which the government has prioritized in its decarbonization efforts.¹⁶^,¹⁷^,¹⁸

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for South Korea. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

2010
2015
2017

Indicator	2017 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	737	729	288 243 to 344	116 68 to 129	49 41 to 57	2066
Relative to reference year in %			-61% -67 to -53%	-84% -91 to -83%	-93% -94 to -92%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	668	659	251 213 to 304	100 34 to 115	18 9 to 46	2062
Relative to reference year in %			-62% -68 to -55%	-85% -95 to -83%	-97% -99 to -93%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2022 update
- Download data as CSV

Republic of Korea. Submission under the Paris Agreement: The Republic of Korea’s Enhanced Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Korea. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker (2021). ↩
See Climate Action Tracker assessment for underlying assumptions. ↩
Climate Action Tracker. South Korea. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
See Climate Action Tracker for historical LULUCF emissions. ↩
Climate Analytics. Assessing the Health Benefits of a Paris-Aligned Coal Phaseout for South Korea. (2021). ↩
ICAP. Korea Emissions Trading Scheme. (2021).[]=47 ↩
Byung-wook, K. World’s first ‘hydrogen law’ takes effect. What’s in it? The Korea Herald. (2021). ↩
The price of carbon under the K-ETS steadily increased from its initial 2015 value up until the beginning of 2020. The last two years have been marked by greater volatility and a general decline in price. However, the market has begun to recover in the last six months. As a comparison, the EU-ETS carbon price has seen a massive increase over the past two years. Please see here for allowance price data. ↩
Climate Analytics. Transitioning towards a zero-carbon society: science-based emissions reduction pathways for South Korea under the Paris Agreement. (2020). ↩
Shin, H. South Korea unveils $43 billion plan for world’s largest offshore wind farm. Reuters. (2021). ↩
SK Group’s hydrogen plans include an initial phase of grey hydrogen production followed by a second phase where facilities are fitted CCUS technology to produce blue hydrogen. In the long term, the company aims to produce green hydrogen from renewable electricity.[^19] ↩
Atchison, J. The Korean New Deal and ammonia energy. Ammonia Energy Association. (2021). ↩
Currently, the UK’s Hornsea 2 is the world’s largest offshore wind farm with a capacity of around 1.4 GW. ↩
MOTIE. Third Energy Master Plan. (2019). ↩
Min-hee, J. South Korean Companies to Collaborate in Green Ammonia Market. Business Korea. (2021). ↩
Climate Analytics. Transitioning towards a coal-free society: science based coal-phase out pathway for South Korea under the Paris Agreement. (2020). ↩

What is South Korea's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

South Korea's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

South Korea's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

South Korea's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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