What is South Korea's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
The emissions intensity of South Korea’s transport sector has only declined by 3% between 1990 and 2019. Conversely, the annual emissions from transport related energy demand have increased by 143% over the same period. This is the result of oil’s continuing dominance in the transport energy mix.
South Korea's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Currently, fossil fuels meet almost the entirety of the transport energy demand (98% in 2019, 94% from oil), while electricity and hydrogen make up the remaining small share. 1.5°C compatible pathways show a reversal of this demand structure with hydrogen, electricity and biofuels overtaking fossil fuels as the larger source of transport energy supply by around 2040. By 2070, the structure has almost entirely flipped, with alternative fuels meeting 93% of demand and fossil 7%.
Due to this shift in the energy structure, 1.5°C compatible pathway shows direct CO₂ emissions declining, particularly after 2030.1 Along with this, energy demand for transport would also decline under most pathways, particularly over the next decade.2 This decline could come from efficiency measures and/or a modal shift.
The government has acknowledged the need for both long term fuel switching and short-term management options to reduce transportation sector emissions. It has proposed policies designed to promote public transport use and increase electric and hydrogen vehicle deployment.3 These include a target for electric and hydrogen powered vehicles to account for a third of new vehicle sales by 2030. This would entail selling a total of 3 million electric vehicles and 850,000 hydrogen vehicles over the period 2019-30.4 For the increased electricity and hydrogen use to reduce transport emissions, these fuels must be produced from renewable energy sources (e.g., green hydrogen).
South Korea's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Korea
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
106
|
58 to
67
|
20 to
35
|
2 to
18
|
2050 to
2062
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-46 to
-37%
|
-81 to
-67%
|
-98 to
-83%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
9 to
34
|
38 to
55
|
53 to
84
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
2
|
1 to
4
|
2 to
6
|
3 to
12
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
10
|
12 to
37
|
11 to
46
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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