What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
The UK’s power sector has changed rapidly over the past decade as soaring renewables growth pushes coal out of the mix. Renewables provided 41% of electricity generation in 2022.1 In 1.5°C compatible pathways, this more than doubles to 85% in 2030. Electricity demand has also fallen 20% since 2005, driven by efficiency improvements.2 However, in 1.5°C compatible pathways, this trend is reversed and demand more than doubles by 2050 compared to today’s levels as industry, transport and buildings are increasingly powered by renewable electricity.
United Kingdom's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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Clean power is an essential milestone on the road to net zero. The UK has set a target to phase out coal from electricity generation by 2024, and achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035.3 This target includes generation from nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels equipped with carbon capture and storage.
The most sustainable way to achieve clean power is a rapid fossil fuel phase out in the power sector. In all pathways, coal is phased out by 2024/2025, with fossil gas phased out from the mid-2030s onwards. The deep electrification pathway, which best captures the rapid cost reductions seen in wind and solar over the past decade and the potential for future progress, phases out fossil gas by 2035. A fossil-free power sector by 2035 is within reach, as wind, solar and batteries continue their precipitous cost declines.4
United Kingdom's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
207
|
7 to
33
|
0 to
15
|
-7 to
9
|
-16 to
0
|
2033 to
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-97 to
-84%
|
-100 to
-93%
|
-103 to
-96%
|
-108 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
41
|
2 to
7
|
1 to
4
|
1 to
3
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
41
|
85 to
92
|
91 to
94
|
93 to
96
|
95 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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