What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power sector capacity investments

Electricity demand has also fallen 20% since 2005, driven by efficiency improvements.⁶6 However, in 1.5°C compatible pathways, industry, transport and buildings are rapidly electrified. As a result, demand more than doubles by 2050 compared to today’s levels

In order to meet this growing demand and phase out the remaining fossil gas in the UK power sector in line with 1.5°C , the UK will need to rapidly deploy renewable capacity.

In 1.5°C compatible pathways, total renewable capacity more than triples by 2030 relative to 2021, reaching 160–190 GW. Solar capacity reaches 52-67 GW by 2030, and wind capacity reaches 95–116 GW. This is significantly higher than the government’s own targets in the Clean Power Plan, which aim for 50 GW of solar and 70–80 GW of wind.

This is likely due to greater levels of electricity demand assumed in these scenarios compared to the Clean Power Plan. In the Clean Power Plan, total UK generation in 2030 reaches 350 TWh, whereas in the 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed, it reaches between 430–530 TWh. While the Clean Power Plan is not explicit in its assumptions on electrification, scenarios with similar electricity generation from the Climate Change Committee reach 24% electrification by 2030.⁶6 In contrast, the pathways shown here reach electrification rates of 30–35% by 2030. Meeting faster electrification rates will require increased renewables capacity deployment and installation, which would have the added benefit of driving fossil fuels out of end-use sectors quicker. This would require annual investments of USD 28–46 billion between now and 2030.