What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the building sector
Buildings emissions have fallen gradually over the past two decades as incremental improvements in energy efficiency reduce fossil gas demand. However, the UK building stock remains one of the leakiest in Europe and is highly dependent on gas, which provided over half of the sector’s energy demand in 2021.1
United Kingdom's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the buildings sector is increasingly electrified. Across all pathways, electricity provides 80-90% of building energy demand in 2050, up from around 30% today. This growth in electrification drives fossil fuels out of the buildings sector.
In the deep electrification and minimal carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathways, fossil gas is effectively phased out of the buildings sector in the 2040s. In the net zero commitments pathway, gas is phased out slightly slower. However, the net zero commitments pathway has greater CDR deployment than the other two, and also faster transport decarbonisation than the minimal CDR pathway. Phasing out fossil gas in the buildings sector as fast as possible can help minimise reliance on costly and uncertain CDR and ensure that the burden of decarbonisation is not simply passed onto another sector.
Final energy demand in the buildings sector falls across all 1.5°C compatible pathways. This is due to a combination of incremental efficiency improvements to buildings and appliances, and the step-change in efficiency improvements that is possible through electrification.
None of the 1.5°C compatible pathways use hydrogen in the buildings sector – adding to the large body of evidence which shows that a scarce supply of green hydrogen should be prioritised for higher-use applications rather than used for heating buildings.2 However, the government is yet to make a clear decision in favour of electrification over hydrogen in the buildings sector. This delay is adding unnecessary confusion and slowing the transition towards an electrified buildings stock.
United Kingdom's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
88
|
56 to
65
|
35 to
46
|
14 to
22
|
1 to
6
|
2043 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-36 to
-26%
|
-60 to
-48%
|
-84 to
-75%
|
-99 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
31
|
41 to
43
|
53 to
56
|
71 to
73
|
87 to
90
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
1
|
1 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
3
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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