What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the building sector
The buildings sector was responsible for 19% of the UK’s total emissions in 2023.1,2 Buildings emissions have fallen gradually over the past two decades as incremental improvements in energy efficiency reduce fossil gas demand. However, the UK building stock remains one of the leakiest in Europe and is highly dependent on gas, which provided over half of the sector’s energy demand in 2022.3, 4
United Kingdom's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the buildings sector is increasingly electrified. Across all pathways, electricity provides almost 90% of building energy demand in 2050, up from around 30% today. This growth in electrification drives fossil fuels out of the buildings sector.
In the deep electrification and minimal carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathways, fossil gas is effectively phased out of the buildings sector in the 2040s.
Final energy demand in the buildings sector falls across all 1.5°C compatible pathways. This is due to a combination of incremental efficiency improvements to buildings and appliances, and the step-change in efficiency improvements that is possible through electrification.
None of the 1.5°C compatible pathways use hydrogen in the buildings sector – adding to the large body of evidence which shows that a scarce supply of green hydrogen should be prioritised for higher-use applications rather than used for heating buildings.5 The CCC’s recommendations that hydrogen should have no role in heating homes should also be taken onboard by the government.6
United Kingdom's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
69
|
56 to
65
|
35 to
46
|
14 to
22
|
1 to
6
|
2043 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-19 to
-6%
|
-49 to
-33%
|
-80 to
-68%
|
-99 to
-91%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
34
|
41 to
43
|
53 to
56
|
71 to
73
|
87 to
90
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
1
|
1 to
1
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
3
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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