What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
United Kingdom's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In 1.5°C compatible pathways, oil’s share in the transport sector is rapidly reduced as electricity and hydrogen, coupled with biofuels, drive fossil fuels out of the energy mix. These fuels provide over 80% of energy demand by 2050 in the net zero commitments and deep electrification pathways.
In the deep electrification pathway, biomass provides 42% of the total energy mix in 2050, while in the net zero Commitments pathway it is limited to 29%. The lower biomass use in the net zero commitments pathway is achieved by greater use of hydrogen (up to 11% in 2050, rather than 2% in the deep electrification pathway) and electricity (up to 41%, compared to the deep electrification pathway’s 38%). This highlights that while the deep electrification pathway has, in general, the highest levels of electrification, in some regions and sectors there is greater electrification from other pathways.
Given the likelihood that hydrogen will be a scarce resource,3 deployment should be prioritised to niche areas less suited to electrification, such as shipping or elements of long distance transport.
It is critically important that any biomass used in a future energy system is sustainably sourced, avoiding upstream emissions from land-use change, competition with food crops, negative biodiversity impacts, and respecting the rights of indigenous communities who may be the traditional users of the land.4
Oil consumption falls rapidly in these pathways. The share of oil in the transport sector could be further reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not modelled in these pathways. Synthetic fuels could also reduce the level of biomass reliance in the pathways, but are associated with large energy requirements, which could limit their scale-up.5
United Kingdom's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
104
|
64 to
90
|
38 to
66
|
19 to
37
|
5 to
11
|
2050 to
2059
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-38 to
-13%
|
-63 to
-37%
|
-82 to
-64%
|
-95 to
-89%
|
| Indicator |
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
6 to
11
|
11 to
20
|
22 to
28
|
38 to
42
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
4
|
7 to
11
|
10 to
17
|
12 to
25
|
18 to
42
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
3
|
1 to
6
|
2 to
11
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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