What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Raising ambition

The UK’s 2030 NDC aims to reduce emissions by at least 68% below 1990 levels, to 260 MtCO2e (including LULUCF).1 This does not align with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require UK emissions to fall by 71% in 2030 (including LULUCF). The UK’s new 2035 NDC, which aims to reduce emissions by 81% to 154 MtCO2e (including LULUCF) does align with cost-effective 1.5°C compatible pathways and is to be welcomed. However, 1.5ºC compatibility is a property of the whole pathway, rather than an individual year. The UK’s full target pathway cannot be seen as fully 1.5ºC compatible at present.

Under current policies, the UK’s emissions in 2030 would be around 329-381 MtCO­­­2e, or 53-59% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF). This leaves an ambition gap of 94-147 MtCO2e that needs to be closed by additional policies.1 2

Recent steps have set the UK on a positive trajectory, including the introduction of a new 2035 NDC, setting a target of clean power by 2030, doubling funding for energy efficiency improvements, and committing to end licensing for new oil and gas. However, much more will be needed to set the UK on a 1.5°C aligned path, including further support for renewables rollout and electrification.

A fair share contribution to global emissions reductions would require the UK to go further than its domestic climate targets and support emissions reductions in developing countries via substantial upscaled climate finance. However, the UK’s commitment to climate finance has wavered in recent years, as decisions to pit climate and development priorities against one another and a reduction in the overall aid budget from 0.7 to 0.3% of GDP has put pressure on the UK’s climate finance commitments.

United Kingdom's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

LULUCF

*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology (excluding LULUCF)

    Data References (excluding LULUCF)

Long term pathway

In 2019, the UK committed to reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050, including LULUCF and international aviation and shipping.

1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the UK’s emissions should fall to at most 52 MtCO2e by 2050, and as low as 9 MtCO2e (excluding LULUCF). Recent projections suggest that the UK’s LULUCF sink could reach -19 MtCO2e by 2050.3 Assuming that the projected sink can be achieved, then the UK’s emissions would need to be in the range of -10 to +33 MtCO2e in 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible, including LULUCF. The current net zero target (which includes LULUCF) is therefore broadly aligned with 1.5°C.

However, the UK government intends to rely heavily on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air capture with carbon storage to achieve net zero GHGs, with these technologies offsetting 75-81 MtCO2e of residual emissions by 2050.4 Relying heavily on carbon dioxide removal is a risky strategy, and developing contingency measures to reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies would improve the robustness of the UK’s net zero target. The UK’s residual emissions in 2050 are envisaged to largely come from aviation and agriculture, so developing further measures to reduce emissions directly in these sectors will be critical to reducing reliance on CDR.

United Kingdom's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for United Kingdom. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
1990
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
802
391
193 to 241
131 to 169
67 to 101
9 to 52
Relative to reference year in %
-76 to -70%
-84 to -79%
-92 to -87%
-99 to -94%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
557
300
100 to 166
44 to 99
-12 to 48
-65 to -7
Relative to reference year in %
-82 to -70%
-92 to -82%
-102 to -91%
-112 to -101%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

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