What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
The UK’s 2030 NDC aims to reduce emissions by at least 68% below 1990 levels, to 253 MtCO2e. This does not align with 1.5°C consistent pathways, which would require the UK to cut emissions by 72% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels.
The UK is also well off-track from meeting its current climate policy targets. Under current policies, the UK’s emissions in 2030 would be around 340-394 MtCO2e, or 50-57% below 1990 levels. This leaves an ambition gap of 87-140 MtCO2e that needs to be closed by additional policies.1
However, the current government is watering down the ambition of key climate policies such as the ban on new gas boilers by 2035 and new petrol/diesel car sales by 2030.2 It is also chronically delaying the introduction of crucial measures such as a detailed delivery plan to achieve clean power by 2035 and creating confusion around the UK’s commitment to climate action.
A fair share contribution to global emissions reductions would require the UK to go further than its domestic climate targets and support emissions reductions to developing countries via substantial upscaled climate finance. However, the UK’s commitment to climate finance has wavered in recent years, as decisions to pit climate and development priorities against one another and a reduction in the overall aid budget put pressure on the UK’s climate finance commitments.
United Kingdom's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
In 2019, the UK committed to reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050, including LULUCF and international aviation and shipping.
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the UK’s emissions should fall to 37 MtCO2e by 2050, excluding LULUCF. Recent projections suggest that the UK’s LULUCF sink could reach -19 MtCO2e by 2050.3 Assuming that the projected sink can be achieved, the UK's net zero target would translate in 19 MtCO2e in 2050 excluding LULUCF, which is broadly aligned with 1.5 compatible pathways.
However, the UK government intends to rely heavily on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air capture with carbon storage to achieve net zero GHGs, with these technologies offsetting 75-81 MtCO2e of residual emissions by 2050.4 Relying heavily on carbon dioxide removal is a risky strategy, and developing contingency measures to reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies would improve the robustness of the UK’s net zero target.
United Kingdom's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for United Kingdom. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
1990
Reference year
|
2021
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
792
|
422
|
194 to
243
|
128 to
169
|
51 to
109
|
-8 to
48
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-76 to
-69%
|
-84 to
-79%
|
-94 to
-86%
|
-101 to
-94%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
554
|
320
|
101 to
166
|
44 to
104
|
-12 to
51
|
-65 to
-8
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-82 to
-70%
|
-92 to
-81%
|
-102 to
-91%
|
-112 to
-101%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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