What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
United Kingdom
Economy wide
In December 2020, the UK submitted its NDC target of at least a 68% reduction in domestic emissions from 1990 levels by 2030, a significant improvement compared to its previous domestic emission reduction target of 57% below 1990 levels by 2030. This target would put the country on a domestic action pathway that is 1.5°C compatible. Furthermore, on April 20, 2021 the UK announced its goal to cut its emissions by 78% by 2035 below 1990 levels, including for the first-time international shipping and aviation emissions.
United Kingdom's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
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Fair share
A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require the UK to go further than its domestic emission reduction target, and provide substantial financial or other support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Net zero GHG
In 2019, the UK amended its Climate Change Act to update its 2050 GHG emissions target from an 80% reduction below 1990 levels to net zero GHG by 2050. While the country does not provide details on the level of sinks it aims at to balance the remaining positive emissions, the net zero emission scenarios provided by the Climate Change Commission indicate a projected LULUCF sink of between –12 to –38 MtCO₂e by 2050.
2050 Ambition
Paris Agreement compatible net zero pathways show that 2050 emissions should reach around –57 to 61 MtCO₂e, excluding LULUCF but including negative CO₂ emissions (in this case BECCS has been assumed). Remaining positive emissions will need to be balanced with carbon dioxide removal approaches.1,2,3 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries such as the UK, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier.
Decarbonisation
Most 1.5°C compatible scenarios analysed in our study show renewable energy in primary energy demand reaching three to four times its 2019 levels by 2050.
Sectors
Power
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The UK has made significant inroads into decarbonising its power sector, having almost phased out coal power completely, however considerable natural gas generation remains.
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Phasing out the remaining coal within the next four years, and natural gas by 2039 at the latest, is necessary to be aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal.
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A 1.5°C compatible trajectory for electricity generation requires at least a 75% share of renewable energy by 2030, compared to the 37% share seen in 2019.
Buildings
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Direct emissions from the buildings sector in 2019 were 17% below 1990 levels due primarily to a steep reduction in the use of solid fuels for heating, and despite increased consumption of natural gas.
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Illustrative 1.5°C pathways show buildings’ direct CO₂ emissions reaching 44-48% below 2019 levels by 2030 and zero by 2050.
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The recently released Buildings and Heat Strategy targeted a ban on all new gas boilers from 2035 and increased funding to encourage the uptake of heat pumps, though the funding is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve the government’s ambitious target of installing 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028.
Transport
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The UK’s largest emitting sector, transport emissions remain roughly at 1990 levels, and are projected to fall only slightly despite recently announced policies.
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The UK government justifies its GBP 27 billion investment in upgrading and expanding the country’s strategic road network by a strong projected increase in use. However, independent modelling projects that 7-16% of car travel could be avoided by 2030 through modal shift, increasing to 12-34% by 2050.
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Illustrative 1.5°C pathways show that direct CO₂ emissions from transport should fall by around a third below 2019 levels by 2030.
Industry
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Industry emissions have fallen by roughly half since 1990, when they were 162 MtCO₂e, due to a combination of efficiency improvements and sectoral decline.
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Illustrative 1.5°C pathways show industry direct CO₂ emissions falling by at least 33% below 2019 levels by 2030, and the electrification rate increasing from its current 37% to 44% by 2030. The government’s targets are a two thirds reduction in total GHG emissions below 2018 levels by 2035 and a 90% reduction by 2050.
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The UK’s Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy and Hydrogen Strategy both include a heavy reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The fact that CCS has not yet been commercially proven increases the risk of the UK not achieving its targets.