What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Illustrative 1.5°C pathways outline an almost doubling of the electrification rate of UK industry from its current level of 37% to between 68-70% by 2050. This corresponds with a reduction in direct CO₂ emissions of at least 33% below 2019 levels, meaning that the UK’s recently released industry sector GHG emissions reduction target of at least two thirds below 2018 levels by 2035 falls within this 1.5°C compatible range.²2 This is also the case for the government’s 2050 target; a 90% reduction below 2018 levels.

The UK’s Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy, released in 2021, relies heavily on a utilisation of carbon capture and storage (CCS).³3 This increases the risk that its emission reduction targets will not be met, as this technology is yet to be proven as commercially viable. Similarly, a targeted wholesale scaling up of hydrogen production and utilisation includes ‘blue’ hydrogen produced from natural gas with CCS to capture the resulting emissions.⁴4 This has been criticised as unnecessary given the potential for renewable hydrogen production, with the chair of the UK’s hydrogen industry association resigning after it was revealed blue hydrogen was to be included in the UK’s hydrogen strategy.⁵5

The greenhouse gas footprint of blue hydrogen has been shown to be more carbon intensive than burning gas or coal for heating, while over the mid- to long-term, blue hydrogen is likely to be more expensive than hydrogen produced using renewables.⁶6^,77 Investments in blue hydrogen production like those proposed by the UK government, will lock in carbon intensive infrastructure, while crowding out investment in renewable hydrogen and slowing down its cost reduction.