What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
After stagnating during the 1990s and early 2000s, emissions from the UK building sector have been declining since 2004. In 2019, direct building sector emissions were only 17% below 1990 levels, however, underscoring the magnitude of the task remaining to achieve full decarbonisation of the building sector.1
United Kingdom's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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This decline in emissions was realised despite only a 6% reduction in non-electricity energy consumption.2 The discrepancy between these two figures is primarily due to a steep decline in the combustion of solid fuels in both residential and commercial buildings, more than offsetting a rise in the use of natural gas.
Reversing the growth in natural gas consumption will be necessary to reach the 44-48% reduction in direct CO₂ emissions below 2019 levels by 2030, and close to zero by 2050, as shown by the illustrative 1.5°C pathways. An announced 2035 ban on the installation of new gas boilers is a good start, but not sufficient on its own.
The UK has introduced several measures aimed at reducing building sector emissions, but to a large extent, these have been ineffective. There is a long history of poorly designed, rushed, or underfunded schemes that have failed to stimulate a large enough uptake of key technologies like heat pumps and building insulation to generate deep emission cuts.3–4 A government target of 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028 is ambitious, but recently announced grant funding as part of a long-awaited ‘Heat and Buildings Strategy’ is unlikely to be sufficient to achieve it.5
United Kingdom's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
88
|
46 to
49
|
5 to
16
|
2 to
3
|
2038 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-48 to
-44%
|
-94 to
-82%
|
-98 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
51 to
55
|
72 to
78
|
83 to
93
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
1
|
1 to
1
|
2 to
3
|
2 to
4
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
22
|
0 to
23
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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