What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
The UK has made considerable progress decarbonising its economy, with total GHG emissions in 2018 at 42% below 1990 levels.1 The bulk of these emissions reductions has come from the power (–62% since 1990) and industry sectors (–49%), whereas transport (–3%), agriculture (–16%), and buildings (–18%) have lagged behind.
The steep emissions reductions in the power sector have come primarily from a shift away from coal-fired power, which supplied just 2% of total generation in 2019.2 Between 2012 and 2019, coal generation fell by 95%. This has coincided with, and been enabled by, a steep increase in generation from renewable sources (+210%, 2012-2019).
Since 2016, transport emissions have constituted the largest share of the UK’s total GHG emissions (27.5% in 2018).3
United Kingdom's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Source: UNFCCC 2021
Data References
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Energy system
The steady decline of coal-fired generation in the UK’s power sector has helped halve total emissions from this sector since 2008, and the country’s last coal plant is now scheduled for closure before October 1, 2024.4 While generation from natural gas is considerably lower now than ten years ago (–25%), it remains considerably higher than in 2013 (+38%), indicating it has also replaced coal-fired generation in recent years.5 Phasing out the UK’s considerable remaining natural gas power capacity is now the main hurdle for decarbonising the power sector, and policy changes in this direction would be beneficial for the necessary transformation.
The share of fossil fuels in the UK’s primary energy supply remains high, at 77% in 2019, though it is 13%-points lower than a decade ago.6,7 Over this time, the UK has become a net-importer of petroleum products despite its considerable oil production and refining industry. A continued and considerable reliance on natural gas has perpetuated high levels of imports. Transitioning away from natural gas in the power and buildings sectors, and oil in the transport sector, will not only contribute to the decarbonisation of the UK economy, but will also help the UK to achieve energy independence.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
- At least 68% below 1990 levels by 2030.
Market mechanisms
- The Climate Change Act allows for a limited use of carbon market units for each budget period. For the current third carbon budget (2018-2022), the limit on the use of carbon units is for the equivalent of 55 MtCO₂e.
Long-term target
- Net zero GHG emissions by 2050 (incl. LULUCF).
- Scotland: net zero GHG emissions by 2045.
- Scotland: 75% below 1990 levels by 2030.
- Wales: 95% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050.
Sectoral targets
Power
- Coal phase-out from the power sector by 2024.
- 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.
Transport
- Ban on sale of fossil fuel vehicles by 2030, 2035 for hybrids.
- Vehicle emission standards: 95g CO₂/km for new passenger vehicles and 147g CO₂/km for vans starting from 2020.
LULUCF
- 30,000 hectares of trees planted per year by 2025.