Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

The UK’s NDC target to cut emissions by at least 68% below 1990 levels by 2030 would bring its domestic emissions pathway in line with a 1.5°C compatible warming limit of the Paris Agreement. Our analysis shows a similar level of emissions reductions (68% below 1990 levels excluding LULUCF) is required for the UK target to be Paris Agreement compatible. This equates to a 2030 emissions level of 251 MtCO₂e.

Under current policies, the UK would miss its current 2030 emissions reduction target, indicating there is a need to strengthen policies across the UK economy.¹ Recent announcements targeting higher renewable energy capacity and a ban on sales of fossil fuel vehicles by 2030 are the kind of interventions needed across other sectors such as industry and buildings. Despite recent announcements targeting these sectors, policies remain insufficient.

United Kingdom's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

In 2019, the UK legislated its commitment to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050, strengthening its previous 2050 target of an 80% reduction below 1990 levels.² While the target does not provide specific details on the level of remaining positive emissions the country would aim for, Paris Agreement agreement compatible pathways show that the country’s remaining emissions should by 2050 be between –57 to 61 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF but including negative CO₂ emissions (in this case BECCS have been assumed).³ These emissions will need to be balanced by the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches.⁴ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries such as the UK, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier.

The UK’s 2050 net zero target was recently confirmed as including emissions from international shipping or aviation, making the UK a global frontrunner in this regard. The UK target is strengthened at the regional level with Scotland targeting net zero GHG emissions by 2045, and Wales targeting a 90% reduction by 2050 below 1990 levels. Remaining emissions from the agriculture and industry sectors will need to be compensated by carbon dioxide removal technologies such as BECCS and direct air carbon capture (DACC).

A higher penetration of renewable energy would avoid a high reliance on carbon dioxide removals. The two 1.5°C compatible scenarios highlighted in this analysis that do not rely on negative emissions technologies project either a more rapid and widespread deployment of renewable energy technologies (94% share of electricity generation by 2040), or a drastic reduction in overall energy demand (a reduction in primary energy demand of roughly half below 2019 level by 2040). This demonstrates that with urgent investment in, and policy support for, renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency measures, a reliance on these unproven technologies in the future can be avoided.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The share of fossil fuels in the UK’s total primary energy demand fell to 77% in 2019 from 90% ten years prior.⁵^,⁶ In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand should be reduced to around 60-70% by 2030, whereas unabated fossil fuels in the power sector should fall from 2019 levels (43%) to 12-17% in 2030. Coal as a power source must be completely phased out by 2030.

The current remaining use of natural gas in the power and building sectors, and oil in the transport sector, present a significant challenge for the government, and requires more ambitious policies.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for United Kingdom. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	791	449	194 176 to 249	72 35 to 130	44 -57 to 61	2067
Relative to reference year in %			-75% -78 to -69%	-91% -96 to -84%	-95% -107 to -92%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	596	365	148 130 to 203	26 4 to 87	1 -84 to 22	2051 2041 to 2057
Relative to reference year in %			-75% -78 to -66%	-96% -99 to -85%	-100% -114 to -96%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013: Annex I (Energy Balance: Net Calorific Values). (2020). ↩
UK Government. Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2019: Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source. (2020). ↩
In analysed global-least cost pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Main Chapters and Annexes A to D dataset. (2020). ↩
UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013: Annex I (Energy Balance: Net Calorific Values). (2020). ↩

What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

United Kingdom's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

United Kingdom's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

United Kingdom's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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