What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
The UK has seen the share of electricity generation provided by renewable sources increase dramatically in recent years, reaching an all-time high of 43% in 2020.1 This would need to roughly double to 84% in 2030 to ensure it is aligned with the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. With excellent wind resources, particularly offshore, and a recent government commitment to reach 40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, the UK is set to achieve a high degree of renewable energy penetration.
A policy U-turn in early 2020 saw onshore wind and solar PV once again permitted to participate in renewable energy auctions from 2021, a welcome boost to these renewable energy sources.2 Government projections under current policies, which do not yet include the effect of the announced target of 40 GW of offshore wind by 2030, or the reversal on onshore wind and solar PV, show renewable energy generation reaching 56% in 2030.3 The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed in this study demonstrate it is possible for the UK to reach 100% renewable energy penetration in the power sector by 2050.
United Kingdom's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The UK’s strong performance to date in decarbonising its power sector, resulting in decreasing emissions intensity to roughly 180 gCO₂/kWh in 202015, compared to 691 gCO₂/kWh in 1990, will need to continue at pace if it is to achieve a 1.5°C compatible target of zero emissions by 2040.
With coal almost phased out already, efforts must be focused on rapidly reducing gas consumption to zero in the coming years. Under planned policies, the share of natural gas supply in the power sector only declines to 9% by 2040, demonstrating that this is an area that needs urgent action from the UK government.4
Pathways with faster reductions of unabated fossil fuel use and faster uptake of renewables with shares within the ranges above 80% by 2030 are able to achieve 1.5°C compatibility without the use of negative emissions technologies, such as BECCS.
Pathways with a slower transition from fossils to renewables typically see carbon removal technologies deployed at scale between 2040 and 2050. Given the uncertainty around the eventual commercial viability of these technologies, the safest option is to achieve zero emissions in the power sector within the next decade by rapidly scaling up generation from renewable energy technologies.
United Kingdom's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in United Kingdom to be on the order of USD 6 to 42 billion by 2030 and 10 to 65 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which is driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and an assumption of growing total energy demand in line with historical trends. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
United Kingdom's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
212
|
53 to
60
|
-1 to
0
|
-109 to
-26
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-75 to
-72%
|
-101 to
-100%
|
-151 to
-112%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
41
|
12 to
17
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
2039 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
38
|
75 to
86
|
94 to
95
|
98 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
44
|
12 to
17
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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