What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In all pathways, there is a rapid growth in industrial electrification. In the minimal CDR pathway, there is very limited reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR). With no potential for CDR to offset fossil emissions, there is a transition to an almost entirely fossil free industrial sector by 2050, with coal effectively phased out during the 2030s, fossil gas phased out during the early 2040s, and oil providing only 2.4% of total demand by 2050. Electricity provides 65% of industrial demand by 2050, almost double today’s level. Bioenergy also provides around 26% of total demand in 2050, with the remainder provided by a mix of heat networks and hydrogen.

The deep electrification pathway goes further and achieves a fully fossil free industrial sector by 2050. It also does this with much less reliance on bioenergy, which provides only 12% of final energy by mid-century. This is achieved by greater electrification and greater use of electrolytic hydrogen in industry. Hydrogen provides 3% of industrial energy demand in 2030 and 15% by 2050. This compares to only 1% of industrial energy coming from hydrogen in 2050 in the minimal CDR pathway. Greater reliance on direct electrification and indirect electrification via green hydrogen can accelerate a fossil phase out and reduce biomass reliance in the industrial sector.

The UK aims to cut industrial emissions by two-thirds by 2035 through a combination of resource and energy efficiency, fuel-switching to hydrogen and electricity, and applying CCS to capture remaining emissions.²2 This is not fast enough to align with 1.5°C. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, CO₂ emissions from industrial energy demand fall 74-95% by 2035 relative to 2019.