What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Industry was responsible for 15% of the UK’s total emissions in 2023 (11% from energy demand, and 4% from process emissions).1 In 2022, fossil gas provided around 37% of total industrial energy, followed by electricity at 35%. The remaining 28% was provided by a mix of coal, oil and biomass.2
United Kingdom's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In all pathways, there is a rapid growth in industrial electrification. In the minimal carbon dioxide removal pathway, there is very limited reliance on offsetting fossil emissions. This results in a transition to an almost entirely fossil free industrial sector by 2050, with coal effectively phased out by 2030, fossil gas phased out during the early 2040s, and oil providing only 2.4% of total demand by 2050. Electricity provides 65% of industrial demand by 2050, almost double today’s level. Bioenergy also provides around 26% of total demand in 2050, with the remainder provided by a mix of heat networks and hydrogen.
The deep electrification pathway goes further and achieves a fully fossil free industrial sector by 2050. It also does this with much less reliance on bioenergy, which provides only 12% of final energy by mid-century. This is achieved by greater electrification and greater use of electrolytic hydrogen in industry. Hydrogen provides 3% of industrial energy demand in 2030 and 15% by 2050. This compares to only 1% of industrial energy coming from hydrogen in 2050 in the minimal CDR pathway. Greater reliance on direct electrification and indirect electrification via green hydrogen can accelerate a fossil fuel phase out and reduce biomass reliance in the industrial sector.
United Kingdom's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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United Kingdom's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
34
|
11 to
19
|
3 to
13
|
0 to
5
|
-2 to
1
|
2035 to
2043
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-68 to
-44%
|
-91 to
-62%
|
-100 to
-85%
|
-106 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
35
|
39 to
56
|
46 to
64
|
51 to
68
|
53 to
68
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
42
|
62 to
71
|
72 to
83
|
80 to
90
|
84 to
95
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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