What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
The UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fell to 385 MtCO2e in 2023, a 5% decline on 2022 levels (including LULUCF).1 Emissions have fallen 53% since 1990.2 The largest contributor has been the transport sector, which was responsible for 29% of UK emissions in 2023. This is followed by buildings at 19% and the industrial sector at 15%.3 The power sector was responsible for 11% of UK emissions in 2023, down from a high of 27% in 2012.4
The UK has legally binding carbon budgets, which limit the amount of GHG emissions allowed over a five-year period. The UK has legislated carbon budgets for the periods 2023-27, 2028-32 and 2033-37 (the fourth, fifth and sixth carbon budgets respectively).5
The UK aims to reduce emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030, and 81% by 2035 (including LULUCF).6, 7However, the UK is currently not on track to achieve these cuts, with only 24–32% of the emissions cuts needed to meet these targets covered by credible policy as of July 2024.8
United Kingdom's 2023 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
The buildings and transport sectors accounted for 38% and 41% of the UK’s final energy demand in 2023, respectively, while industry was responsible for 16%.9 Final energy demand has fallen 25% over 2004–2023,10 largely due to efficiency improvements in buildings and industry.11
While the past decade has seen progress in power sector decarbonisation, the UK cannot rely on these past successes in the future. Key areas for focus with the government should be:
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Supporting the government’s commitment to clean power by 2030. This will require action to accelerate renewables deployment via contract for difference auctions, significant grid development and further policy measures to unlock renewables deployment at pace.
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Removing policy costs from household electricity bills to help incentivise electrification and ensure that heat pumps cut consumer bills.
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Reversing key policy rollbacks of the previous government, which exempted 20% of houses from the fossil-fuelled boiler ban and delayed the ban on petrol and diesel vehicle sales to 2035.
Targets and commitments
NDC Targets:
2030
As expressed by the country:
- 68% reduction of total GHGs by 2030 relative to 1990 levels.12
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
- 68% reduction by 2030 relative to 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF).13
2035
As expressed by the country:
- 81% reduction of total GHGs by 2035 relative to 1990 levels.14
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
- 81% reduction by 2035 relative to 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF).15
Long-term target
As expressed by the country:
- Net zero GHG emissions by 2050, including LULUCF and international aviation and shipping.16