What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
The UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 412 MtCO2e in 2022, a 2.2% decline on 2021 levels excluding LULUCF.1 Emissions have fallen 48% since 1990.2 The largest contributor has been the transport sector, which is responsible for 26% of the UK’s emissions in 2021.3 This is followed by the industrial sector at 23%, and the buildings sector at 21%. The power sector was responsible for 13% of UK emissions, down from a high of 27% in 2012.4
The UK has legally binding carbon budgets, which limit the amount of GHG emissions allowed over a five-year period. The UK has legislated carbon budgets for the periods 2023-27, 2028-32 and 2033-37 (the fourth, fifth and sixth carbon budgets respectively).
The UK aims to reduce emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030.5 The UK is currently not on track to achieve this, with less than 25% of the emissions cuts needed to align with the UK’s 2030 climate target covered by credible policy as of June 2022.6 Current climate action is stagnating, and the UK will need to significantly accelerate policy design and implementation to align with the 1.5°C temperature limit.
United Kingdom's 2021 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
The buildings and transport sectors accounted for 39% and 38% of the UK’s final energy demand in 2022, respectively, while industry was responsible for 17%.7 Final energy demand has been falling since 2004, largely due to efficiency improvements in buildings and industry.8
While the past decade has seen progress in power sector decarbonisation, the UK cannot rely on these past successes in the future. There are major policy gaps remaining in the end-use sectors of buildings, transport and industry, including:
- Insufficient and inconsistent support for the uptake of zero-carbon heat and efficiency improvements in buildings.
- A lack of credible policies to support industrial electrification.
- Overreliance on technological innovation in the transport sector, with an unwillingness to engage in and support behavioural and societal change.
Targets and commitments
NDC Target:
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As expressed by the country:
68% reduction of total GHGs by 2030 relative to 1990 levels.9 -
Re-expressed excluding LULUCF:
68% reduction by 2030 relative to 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF).10
Sector coverage
- Agriculture, Waste, Industry (processes), Energy, LULUCF
Long-term target
- As formulated by the country: Net zero GHG emissions by 2050, including LULUCF and international aviation and shipping.11 Quantified in AR5 GWP100 without climate feedbacks.