What is Sri Lanka's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Sri Lanka emitted 38.2 MtCO₂e in 2017.1 The energy sector was the leading emitter, accounting for 74% of total emissions. Agriculture accounted for 15% of emissions, followed by the waste sector at 8% and industrial processes at 3% (excluding LULUCF).
Sri Lanka has committed to increasing forest cover by 32% between 2021-2030. It also aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 14.5% by 2030 below a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario conditional on international support, and a 4% unconditional reduction, in its updated NDC in 2021.2
Sri Lanka's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. LULUCF emissions are not available
Data References
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Energy system
In 2019, Sri Lanka’s primary energy supply was dominated by oil, accounting for 47%, followed by biomass at 35%. The rest of Sri Lanka’s energy supply consists of coal (13.5%), hydropower (4%), and wind and solar (0.5%).
Many Sri Lankan households suffer from energy poverty, and the majority still lacks access to basic energy needs, including modern cooking fuels.3 Sri Lanka depends heavily on imports for its primary energy needs. The current deep economic crisis has left the country struggling to pay for oil and cooking gas imports, resulting in severe power outages.4,5 This also highlights Sri Lanka’s slow progress in the uptake of renewable energy technologies. In its 2016 NDC, Sri Lanka committed to establishing 805 MW of renewable energy (solar, wind, mini hydro) by 2030, which the country is not currently on track to achieve.6 In addition, despite the government committing to build no new coal power plants, Sri Lanka’s only power utility company, Ceylon Electricity Board, is planning to expand coal capacity.7,8
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Sri Lanka aims to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 14.5% below BAU by 2030, with 4% an unconditional target and 10.5% target conditional on international support.
Market mechanisms
Sri Lanka will require finance, technology transfer and capacity building in line with Article 4 of the UNFCCC and Articles 9, 10 and 11 of the Paris Agreement.
Long-term target
As of March 2023, Sri Lanka has not yet submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC. However, the country aims to achieve carbon neutral electricity generation by 2050.9
Sectoral targets
Power
- Increase the share of renewables in the power mix to 70% by 2030.10
- Develop additional renewable energy capacity by 3867 MW above business as usual (BAU).11
- A 25% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (5% unconditionally and 20% conditionally) between 2021-2030 as compared to a business-as-usual BAU scenario.12
Industry
- A 7% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (4% unconditionally and 3% conditionally) between 2021-2030 as compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.13
LULUCF
- Increase forest cover by 32% between 2021-2030.14
- A 7% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (2% unconditionally and 5% conditionally) between 2021-2030, as compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.15
Agriculture
- A 7% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (4% unconditionally and 3% conditionally) between 2021-2030 as compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.16