What is Sri Lanka's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 December 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its updated NDC, Sri Lanka aims to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 14.5% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030, with 4% an unconditional target and 10.5% target conditional on international support. This 14.5% target is equivalent to GHG emissions levels of 44.4 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, or 62% above 2010 levels, excluding LULUCF.1

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Sri Lanka needs to reduce its GHG emissions to 17-26 MtCO2e/yr by 2030, or 6% above to 37% below 2010 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. .

Sri Lanka depends heavily on imports for its primary energy needs, mostly coal and oil which are also used for electricity generation. To enhance its energy security and independence, the country could adopt a more ambitious policy framework for scaling up renewable energy in this decade. Sri Lanka would need international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building, to support its energy transition and close the gap between its fair share emissions level and a 1.5°C emissions pathway.

Sri Lanka's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

  • Graph description

    The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

Sri Lanka’s carbon neutrality target has been pushed forward to 2050 from 2060, taking into account the power sector’s target to achieve carbon neutrality in electricity generation by 2050 and a 70% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, as well as the contribution of emissions reductions in other sectors.2 How Sri Lanka intends to achieve carbon neutrality given the expansion of fossil gas extraction and its expectation that emissions will rise in the near term is not clear.

A 1.5°C compatible pathway would necessitate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, excluding LULUCF, to around 6 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 or 78% below 2010 levels. Sri Lanka committed to increasing forest cover by 32% between 2021-2030, which will be key to balancing any remaining emissions with sinks from the land sector.

Sri Lanka's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

In 2019, Sri Lanka's energy demand was predominantly supplied by fossil fuels, with oil (47%) and coal (13.5%) accounting for the majority of the country's energy requirements. However, biomass also played an important role with a 35% share.3 The rest is made up of other sources, such as hydro solar, and wind. Due to rising energy demand, Sri Lanka has increased its reliance on costly imported fossil fuels (from 43% of its total energy mix in 2000 to 57% in 2019).4 The transportation and electricity generation sectors in particular rely heavily on fossil fuels.

To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Sri Lanka’s share of fossil fuels in primary energy would need to fall from its 2019 level of 57% to 8-28% by 2050. This will include decreasing its share of oil (mostly in the transport sector) and coal.

Sri Lanka has a high dependency on imported fuel – mostly oil and coal used for electricity generation, but also primary energy use, due to a lack of significant domestic reserves. This has caused an energy crisis in the face of ongoing economic crises in the country. The government intends to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2030 by utilising domestic fossil gas and large hydro, as well as variable renewables. To be 1.5°C compatible, the government would need to focus on reducing fossil fuel use, including gas, and accelerate the deployment of renewables.

The uptake of renewable energy plays an important role in the decarbonisation of Sri Lanka’s energy system by 2050 and would need to increase to 49-80% of primary energy by 2040. Although the country intends to achieve carbon neutrality in its power sector by 2050, there is no clear roadmap for renewables rollout. Instead, the government intends to continue using fossil fuels, with a plan in place to convert existing oil-based power plants to fossil gas and introducing new fossil gas-fired power plants.5

Sri Lanka's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Sri Lanka. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2010
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
27
39
19
17 to 26
11
10 to 14
6
5 to 9
2060
Relative to reference year in %
-29%
-37 to -6%
-60%
-65 to -50%
-78%
-83 to -67%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
14
26
13
11 to 15
5
3 to 7
1
-1 to 2
2055
2048 to 2063
Relative to reference year in %
-5%
-17 to 14%
-64%
-78 to -48%
-92%
-111 to -82%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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