What is Sri Lanka's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
In 2019, Sri Lanka’s electricity demand was approximately 14.6 TWh, with an almost equal split between renewables, coal and oil. According to Sri Lanka’s NDC, electricity demand is expected to increase 5% annually.1
To align Sri Lanka’s power sector with 1.5°C, the share of renewables would need to reach 92-94% by 2030 and 100% by 2040, from its 2019 level of 33%.
In its updated NDC, Sri Lanka has committed to not build any new coal power plants in the future and to achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector by 2050.2 However, the monopoly power utility company Ceylon Electricity Board included significant coal power capacity additions in its Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan until 2039.3
Sri Lanka has a high import dependency to meet its energy needs, particularly for power generation. The recent price volatility on global fossil fuel markets and domestic economic crises have worsened its fuel shortage, with the country struggling to pay for energy imports. It is now facing its worst power outages since 1996.4 Sri Lanka has a very high potential for solar and wind energy and exploring these renewable energy sources will help to ensure energy security and cheaper electricity. Sri Lanka has significant hydropower capacity, but hydro projects are becoming increasingly susceptible to incidences of drought.5 This further highlights the importance of a diversification of renewable energy sources in the long term.
Sri Lanka's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Sri Lanka's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Sri Lanka
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
608
|
43 to
63
|
-48 to
0
|
-29 to
-11
|
2035 to
2036
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-90%
|
-108 to
-100%
|
-105 to
-102%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
33
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
33
|
92 to
94
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
67
|
6 to
8
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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