What is Egypt's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Egypt's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Two key levers to support transport decarbonisation are the rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) and investment in public transport infrastructure. The Deep Electrification pathway illustrates the former, with electricity reaching 6% of the transport energy mix by 2030 and 77% by 2040. This can be supported through, for example, EV subsidies and the buildout of charging infrastructure.
Car ownership in Egypt is low, and many of these are older, polluting vehicles which severely impact air quality in Egypt’s cities.4 As a ‘starter market’, Egypt can expand car use and significantly reduce air pollution if it invests in EV infrastructure early.5 Around 7000 EVs are registered in Egypt, and government subsidies for domestically produced EVs will support further uptake. 6,7 Egypt relies on converting vehicles to compressed natural gas (CNG) as a critical lever to cutting emissions, with a goal of converting 1.5 million vehicles to CNG.8 However, CNG is not sufficient to reduce emissions in line with 1.5°C and extends the use of GHG emitting vehicles, resulting in more climate and air pollutants than EVs.9 Shifting the focus to EVs can lower emissions in line with 1.5°C and have a huge impact on air quality in Egyptian cities.
Under the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, energy demand would consistently decline out to 2050, while electrification would reach 4% by 2030 and 48% by 2040. Though electrification also remains central to this pathway, lower energy demand means that the electrification of road transport does not need be as rapid as is seen under the Deep Electrification pathway. In practice, achieving this pathway would involve significant investment in public transport.
Through its ownership of the Suez Canal, Egypt is also a major trading hub. As it does not have an extensive rail network, freight transport heavily relies on trucks, further accelerating emissions.10 As part of its Vision 2030 strategy, Egypt aims to expand its railway systems as well as Cairo’s subway lines, though its road networks will also be expanded.11 A modal shift for freight from road to rail can play an important part in aligning with 1.5°C.
Egypt's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Egypt
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
57
|
46 to
48
|
41 to
48
|
23 to
43
|
7 to
23
|
2059 to
2068
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-19 to
-16%
|
-28 to
-16%
|
-60 to
-25%
|
-88 to
-60%
|
| Indicator |
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
4 to
6
|
7 to
21
|
12 to
49
|
32 to
77
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
10
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
1 to
4
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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