Egypt’s 2017 NDC provides a list of general mitigation actions rather than a quantified emissions reduction target. Actions are listed for the energy, agriculture, waste, industrial processes and oil and gas sectors, with a strong emphasis on energy. “Additional measures” for the LULUCF sector to increase carbon sequestration are also considered. Implementation of Egypt’s NDC is partly conditional on financial support, with an estimated cost of USD 73.04 billion (including adaptation measures).
Our analysis indicates that Egypt would need to put forward a new NDC, with an ambitious target to reduce emissions to 22% below 2015 levels or 244 MtCO₂e/year (excl. LULUCF) by 2030 to be 1.5˚C compatible. Egypt failed to submit an updated NDC ahead of COP26.
Long term pathway
In a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, Egypt’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) reaches 110 MtCO₂e/year by mid-century, or 65% below 2015 levels. When excluding the contribution of the land sector, CO₂ emissions are reduced by 86% below 2015 levels by 2050, enabled by rapid decarbonisation of the power sector. Egypt does not have a net zero target and has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.
The industry and energy sectors would need to be the first to reach zero emissions, respectively. Remaining emissions from the agriculture and waste sectors will need to be balanced with negative CO₂ emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removals approaches, the need for which could be reduced by an accelerated uptake of renewables.