What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Bangladesh’s power mix was dominated by fossil fuels in 2019 – they accounted for approximately 99% of generation.1 Natural gas is the largest fuel source, followed by oil. With the aim of diversifying its power mix, reducing its high reliance on domestic natural gas resources and its dependency on oil, the country had planned to increase coal capacity. However, this plan was scrapped in 2021 – with 90% of the planned coal capacity expansion cancelled. While this is a step forward in the right direction, the country is still planning to rely on fossil fuels for power generation, aiming to replace the planned coal expansion with natural gas.
While coal plays a minor role currently in Bangladesh’s power mix, for it to be aligned with a 1.5°C compatible pathway it would need to be phased out in 2030. Our analysed scenarios show that by 2030, unabated fossil fuel generation share in the power sector needs to be reduced to 74-77% (compared to 99% in 2019), while renewable energy uptake should increase up to 19-26% by 2030 under different scenarios.2,3 In its updated NDC, Bangladesh plans on improved efficiency in power generation through technological improvements particularly in the gas capacity through installation of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). This might lead the country on a dangerous path of stranded assets in the long term, as opposed to focusing on the developing of available and cheaper technologies such as renewables.
Bangladesh's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Power generation in Bangladesh is heavily dependent on natural gas, with an estimated emissions intensity of 460 gCO₂/kWh in 2019. Bangladesh’s electricity sector is one of the fastest growing in South Asia, with an average annual growth of ~10% during the past decade.4 1.5°C compatible pathways shows Bangladesh’s power sector fully decarbonised by 2040, with gas phased out of power generation by 2040, and share of renewables ramping up from 1% in 2019, to 99-100% by 2050.
Investing in any new fossil fuel capacity risks stranded assets and locking in the country to a carbon intensive emissions pathway.
Renewable power is starting to take hold in Bangladesh. The Bangladeshi government has recently announced a target of 40% of power generation to come from renewable energy sources by 2041, up from the current levels of 3%.5 Bangladesh aims to add 2 GW of renewable energy to reach an installed capacity of 2.5 GW by 2021, and 3.8 GW by 2041.
To achieve this Bangladesh will need to strengthen its renewable energy targets to replace the current plan for fossil capacity additions. The phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, combined with the fact that new solar PV is now significantly cheaper to build than new coal, are potential opportunities for the country to capitalise on in the decarbonisation of its power sector.6
Bangladesh's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Bangladesh to be on the order of USD 0.8 to 6.8 billion by 2030 and 1.5 to 26 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Bangladesh's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bangladesh
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
465
|
322 to
332
|
-9 to
0
|
-32 to
0
|
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-31 to
-29%
|
-102 to
-100%
|
-107 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
1
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
81
|
56 to
65
|
0 to
12
|
0 to
0
|
2040 to
2049
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
1
|
19 to
26
|
77 to
98
|
99 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
99
|
74 to
77
|
0 to
12
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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