Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Bangladesh’s 2021 NDC includes stronger conditional and unconditional targets. The unconditional target aims at a 6.73% reduction of GHG emissions below business as usual (BAU) level. The conditional aims to reduce emissions 15.12% below BAU by 2030, equivalent to 319.5 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 149% above 2012 levels excluding LULUCF. This is almost the same as the last NDC but the absolute reduction of 61.9 MtCO₂e is higher than the previous NDC as the previous NDC only covers power, industry and transport sectors.¹ The updated targets cover all sectors, with most of the reduction coming from the energy sector (~95%).

1.5°C compatible pathways would require Bangladesh to reach emission levels of 74-112 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, or reductions of around 13-42% below 2012 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. Bangladesh would need international support to implement mitigation measures that would close the gap between its fair share and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway.

Bangladesh's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

2010
2012
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Data discrepancies

Long term pathway

Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the country would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 59-73% below 2012 levels or to 34-53 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF.² Remaining emissions, mostly coming from agriculture and waste could then be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as strengthened sinks from the land sector.

The GHG National Inventory report from 2005³ and 2012 indicates that the land sector was a source of emissions accounting for around 5% of total GHG in 2012, and recent estimates show it emitted around 22 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019.⁴ Thus, the country will need to implement stringent policies to reduce its forestry emissions and to further contribute to negative emissions.⁵ As a part its long-term vision and broader energy diversification Bangladesh has outlined a National Solar Energy Roadmap 2021-2041 with specific time-bound measures.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Bangladesh’s energy system is highly dependent on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, which accounted for up to 55% of total primary energy use in 2017.⁶ Bangladesh has high domestic reserves of natural gas and doesn’t depend on imports.⁷ Natural gas and oil represented a higher proportion of primary energy demand in 2018 compared to 2010.⁸ Renewables, excluding traditional biomass, had a share of less than 1% in 2017 of total primary energy, with traditional biomass accounting for around 20% (mostly used for cooking).⁹

To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Bangladesh’s share of fossil fuels in primary energy would need to fall from its 2019 level of around 80% to 5-23% by 2050. This will include decreasing its share of natural gas, oil (mostly in the transport sector) and coal. Coal has an insignificant role in its current power mix, and its earlier plan of expanding coal capacity has been scrapped as of 2021 – 90% of the capacity expansion has been rolled back.

Decarbonisation of Bangladesh’s energy system by 2050 is heavily dependent on renewables uptake, specifically, shifting away from traditional biomass to variable renewables. Being an agrarian country, biomass is one of the potential renewable energy sources in Bangladesh. Major sources of biomass-based energy include agricultural crop residues, animal manure and municipal solid waste.¹⁰ In the absence of electrification of end use sectors, the use of biogas with improved cookstoves and biofuel in transport sector could reduce demand for fossil fuels.¹¹^,¹² Our analysis shows that lower penetration of renewables would mean that Bangladesh would need to adopt carbon removal approaches such as land sinks or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to balance residual emissions.¹³

While models show uptake of fossil with carbon capture and storage in Bangladesh, they represent a potential additional mitigation burden, as these high-cost systems are not yet available at scale and would still result in high residual carbon emissions that would need to be minimised with further efforts to reduce emissions and/or more negative emissions/carbon removal to compensate.

Recent rises in demand for all fossil fuels, especially natural gas, would need to begin declining as soon as possible if Bangladesh is to have any chance of forging a 1.5°C aligned energy system transformation.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Bangladesh. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

2010
2012
2015

Indicator	2012 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	128	170	90 74 to 112	53 52 to 69	39 34 to 53	2068
Relative to reference year in %			-30% -42 to -13%	-58% -59 to -46%	-70% -73 to -59%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	64	100	48 38 to 54	20 8 to 29	2 1 to 10	2056 2051 to 2062
Relative to reference year in %			-26% -41 to -16%	-68% -88 to -55%	-96% -99 to -85%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.
- Download data as CSV

Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 2021-Bangladesh. (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for countries, they underestimate the feasible space for developed countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Ministry of Environment and Forests, G. of B. Second national Communication of Bangladesh to UNFCCC. (2012). ↩
Ministry of Environment, F. and C. C. of B. Third National Communication of Bangladesh to UNFCCC. (2018). ↩
FAOSTAT. Land use Total Data Bangladesh. (2021). ↩
IEA. Bangladesh - Countries & Regions. (2019). ↩
Worldometer. Bangladesh Natural Gas Reserves, Production and Consumption Statistics. (2017). ↩
SAARC. SAARC Energy Outlook 2030. (2018). ↩
IEA. World Energy Balances 2019 (OECD and Selected Emerging Economies). (2019). ↩
Huda, A. S. N., Mekhilef, S. & Ahsan, A. Biomass energy in Bangladesh: Current status and prospects. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 30, 504–517 (2014). ↩
Khan, M. S. et al. Prospect Of Biofuel In Bangladesh: Bioethanol And Biodiesel Production At Local Condition. In Joint Conference International Conference on Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology & International Conference on Ecology and Ecosystems (2017). ↩
Rouf, M. A. & Haque, M. N. Role of Renewable Energy (Biogas and Improved Cook Stoves) for Creation of Green Jobs in Bangladesh. (2008). ↩
Fisher, M. Introduction of Nuclear Power in Bangladesh Underway with IAEA Assistance. (2020). ↩

What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Bangladesh's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Bangladesh's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Bangladesh's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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