What is Bangladesh's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current Situation

Last update: 1 August 2021

Emissions profile

Since 1993 Bangladesh has steadily increased its total emissions, with an increase of over 30% since 2011 (excluding LULUCF). The energy sector is the single largest source of CO₂ emissions. Emissions from the agriculture and waste sectors were 39% in 2019, and primarily consisted of CH₄, and N₂O. Bangladesh’s agricultural emissions are mainly from rice cultivation, digestive processes of animals, manure, and poultry litter management.1 Emissions from agriculture accounted for 28% of total emissions in 2018 which is an improvement from the 2011, which was 35%. The decline is primarily due to the decline in GDP share of agriculture from 17% to 13% during this period.2

In 2019, Bangladesh’s power sector accounted for 22% of emissions. Natural gas is the major fuel used in electricity generation in Bangladesh, accounting for 75% of generation, and despite continued emphasis from the country on renewable energy use the share of natural gas in its power sector has increased steadily.3

Uncertainties remain around Bangladesh’s LULUCF emissions. However, its third national communication reported the sector as a source of emissions in 2012, contributing to around 5% of total GHG emissions in that year.4

Bangladesh's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system

Bangladesh’s primary energy is dominated by natural gas, accounting for 55% of total supply. Natural gas contributed to around 75% of electricity generation in 2018. While coal currently has an insignificant share of power energy mix generation (less than 1%), in 2021 Bangladesh scrapped 90% of its planned coal expansion.5 This was driven by the rising costs of coal import and increased price per generation unit .6,7 This is the right step forward, as increasing coal capacity puts the country at risk to lock itself on a carbon intensive pathway with high costs and the potential for stranded assets.

Bangladesh is one of the fastest growing economies in South Asia and aspires to be a developed country by 2041.8 As energy and electricity play a key role in sustained economic growth and infrastructure development, this will increase future energy and electricity demand significantly. A strengthened policy framework will be necessary to achieve transformational change in the energy sector by abandoning fossil fuels.

Bangladesh is very vulnerable to climate change, as it is repeatedly hit by extreme weather events like cyclones which severely damage energy infrastructure. A diversified, decentralised, and climate-resilient power system could reduce the negative impacts of climate change on power sector. Bangladesh has the largest off-grid solar power programme in the world, which enables 20 million homes (16% of rural population) access to electricity.9

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Baseline scenario target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC Target:

  • 6.73% below BAU levels by 2030 (equivalent to an increase of emissions of 126% above 2012 levels. Updated NDC of Bangladesh covers all sectors (energy, IPPU, agriculture and waste). 95% of unconditional emission reduction will be from the energy sector.10

Conditional NDC Target:

  • 15% below BAU by 2030. Bangladesh NDC covers only the power, transport and industry sectors.11
  • Additional measures (see sectoral targets).

Long-term target

  • As of April 2022, Bangladesh has not submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC.

Sectoral targets

Power

  • Implementation of renewable energy project of 911.8 MW (solar grid connected 581 MW, solar mini grid 56.8 MW, wind 149 MW, biomass 20 MW, biogas 5 MW, new hydro 100 MW).12
  • 100% of new coal-based power plants to use super-critical technology by 2030.
  • 0.400 GW of wind capacity installed by 2030.
  • 1 GW of utility-scale solar power installed by 2030.
  • 40% renewable energy target in the power mix by 2041.13
  • Installation of new combined cycle gas based power plant (3208 MW).14
  • Efficiency improvement of existing gas Turbine power plant (570 MW).15

Transport

  • Up to around a 10% shift in passenger traffic from road to rail by 2030, compared to the business as usual.16
  • 15% improvement in the efficiency of vehicles due to more efficient running by 2030.

Industry

  • 10% energy efficiency in the industry sub-sector compared to the business as usual by 2030.17

Buildings

  • A 70% market share of improved biomass cookstoves, to reach 20 million households in 2030.
  • 40% market share of improved gas cookstoves by 2030.
  • 10% market switch from biomass to LPG for cooking compared to the business as usual by 2030.
  • 25% reduction of overall energy consumption of the commercial sector compared to the business as usual by 2030.
  • Use energy-efficient appliances in households and commercial buildings (achieve 5% and 12% reduction in emission respectively).18
  • Reduction of ozone depleting gases (HCFCs) use in air conditioning as per Montreal protocol targets by 2025.19

Waste

  • 50% of the managed waste fraction is diverted from landfill to composting by 2030.20
  • 70% of landfill gas captured and used for electricity generation by 2030.21
  • Establishment of waste to energy plant and incineration plant.22

Agriculture

  • 50% reduction in draft animals compared to the business as usual by 2030.23
  • 35% increase in organic fertilizer share compared to the business as usual by 2030.24
  • 20% of all rice cultivation uses alternate wetting and drying irrigation by 2030.25
  • Upscaling alternate wetting and drying (AWD) in dry season rice field in 50,000 ha of crop lands.26
  • Rice varietal improvement for 1,111,000 ha crop lands.27

LULUCF

  • Increase tree cover from 22.37% (2014) to 24%.28
  • Afforestation and reforestation in the coastal areas, islands and degraded areas – 150,000 ha.29
  • Restore the deforested forests – 137,800 ha at the hill and plain land sal forest.30
  • Restore the degraded forests – 200,000 ha at the hill and plain land sal forest.31

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