What is Türkiye's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Transport

Decarbonising the transport sector

Türkiye’s transport CO2 emissions reached 90 MtCO2 in 2022. Oil made up 98% of the energy mix in 2022 and is the primary driver of transport emissions.1 To be compatible with 1.5°C pathways, transport CO2 emissions would need to fall to 60-63 MtCO2 by 2030 and drop further to 11-29 MtCO2 by 2050. These reductions would come from cutting oil’s share of the transport energy mix to 39-61% by 2050.

Türkiye's energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.

Both the Minimal CDR and Deep Electrification pathways see large increases in the share of biofuels and electricity, which reach nearly 56% and 57% of the mix, respectively, by 2050. It is important that any biomass used in a future energy system is sustainably sourced, avoiding upstream emissions from land-use change, competition with food crops, negative biodiversity impacts, and respecting the rights of indigenous communities who may be the traditional users of the land.

Subsidies which promote EVs and the expansion of charging infrastructure will be key to cutting emissions. Given the growing domestic production of EVs in Türkiye, supporting domestic uptake can stimulate economic growth and reduce dangerous pollution in urban areas.2,3 The government aims to develop a fast-charging station network to meet rapidly growing consumer demand for EVs,4 with around one-third of charging stations being fast DC chargers.5 This is positive, but increasing ambition will be critical as car ownership is expected to rise, in line with historical trends.6 Leapfrogging internal combustion cars by providing affordable EVs to first-time car owners will allow Türkiye to decouple car ownership from emissions.

Türkiye's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye

Indicator
2022
2030
2035
2040
2050
Transport sector decarbonised by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
90
60 to 63
44 to 57
26 to 45
11 to 29
2061 to 2063
Relative to reference year in %
-33 to -30%
-51 to -37%
-71 to -50%
-88 to -68%
Indicator
2022
2030
2035
2040
2050
Share of electricity
%
1
2 to 3
5 to 10
10 to 19
21 to 31
Share of biofuels
%
0
1 to 1
1 to 2
2 to 3
10 to 31
Share of hydrogen
%
0
0 to 1
0 to 2
1 to 4
2 to 8

All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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