What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Decarbonising the transport sector
The transport sector was responsible for 18% of Poland’s total emissions in 2022, at 69 MtCO2e. Oil met 93% of the sector’s energy consumption in 2022.
The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway limits warming to 1.5°C with only minimal amounts of carbon dioxide removal. This pathway envisages the highest share of electricity (45% by 2050), while reducing the reliance on biofuels, which face scalability and sustainability concerns.
Rapid uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) will be pivotal to reducing transport emissions. More electricity will be needed to meet EV demand through a rollout of charging stations as well as with the expansion of electric rail by 2050.
Poland's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway also sees greater reductions in energy consumption, achieving more than a 51% reduction by 2050, compared to 2022. This can be achieved through stronger policies supporting more public and shared modes of transportation, as well as adequate infrastructure.
Remaining oil consumption in transport in 2050 would likely be concentrated in long-distance transport such as aviation and shipping. It could be further reduced through the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not captured in these pathways. Hydrogen is expected to play a complementary role across all pathways, ranging from 2-10% by 2050, mainly for long-distance heavy-duty vehicles. Poland’s share of total renewable energy in transport was at 6% in 2023 (EU27 average was 10.8%), so significantly more effort is required to reach the EU target of a 29% share of renewables in final consumption by 2030.
Poland's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Transport sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
67
|
33 to
47
|
20 to
35
|
10 to
19
|
2 to
5
|
2048 to
2058
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-51 to
-30%
|
-70 to
-48%
|
-85 to
-72%
|
-97 to
-93%
|
| Indicator |
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
6 to
12
|
13 to
22
|
24 to
30
|
41 to
45
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
8 to
13
|
11 to
18
|
14 to
26
|
18 to
42
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
3
|
1 to
6
|
2 to
10
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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