What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Emissions from the transport sector in Poland have more than tripled since 1990, driven mostly by people driving more. As a result, the sector’s share of Poland’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased from 5% to 16%. To be 1.5°C compatible, emissions from this sector need to reduce by between 45% and 81% by 2030 and by between 78-93% by 2040 in comparison to 2019. The sector could be fully decarbonised at the beginning of the 2050s.
Poland's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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All scenarios assumed lower energy consumption from the sector in 2040 and 2050 and much lower carbon intensity of the energy consumed. Electrification of transport is the main driver of emissions reductions, with some role played by hydrogen. Some scenarios also assume an important role for biofuels; however, the implementation of such scenarios could have negative impacts in Poland for food security and emissions from other sectors, especially LULUCF.
Poland is lagging behind other countries in decarbonising its transport sector. In 2021 less than 6% of cars sold in Poland were electric, much below the average EU level of 24%. With average emissions of new vehicles sold in 2020 at 125 gCO₂/km, Poland was also much worse than the EU average of 108 gCO₂/km.1 With 662 passenger cars per 1000 citizens, Poland ranks 3rd in terms of the motorisation rate in the EU.2
In addition to accelerating the electrification of its transport sector, Poland also needs to increase availability of public transport that would reduce the need for car ownership, especially in rural areas.
Poland's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
64
|
12 to
35
|
5 to
14
|
3 to
3
|
2052 to
2053
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-81 to
-45%
|
-93 to
-78%
|
-95 to
-95%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
1
|
10 to
28
|
21 to
59
|
28 to
70
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
5
|
12 to
17
|
18 to
34
|
17 to
53
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
3 to
9
|
8 to
42
|
21 to
50
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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