What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
Buildings emissions accounted for almost 10% of Poland’s total GHGs in 2022.1 These are mostly driven by fossil fuels – primarily coal and gas – which correspond to almost 40% of the buildings sector’s power mix. To align with 1.5°C, fossil fuels would fall below 4% across all pathways by 2050.
Poland's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all pathways, the share of electricity in the buildings sector ramps up, ultimately reaching 54-74% by 2050 (from 25% in 2022). Decarbonising the power sector and quickly electrifying its processes (for instance heat pumps coupled with renovations) has a direct positive effect in buildings, reducing emissions by 46-53% already by 2030 and almost 95% by 2050 across the assessed pathways. Across all pathways, biomass is drastically reduced by 2050.
Poland has experienced major heat pump deployment growth. Between 2012 and 2022, the number of heat pumps sold in Poland surged from approximately 12,000 to over 200,000 units.[^2] Poland has set an ambitious target to install 2 million heat pumps by 2030 as part of its strategy to decarbonise heating and improve air quality. This initiative aims to replace a significant portion of the country's coal and wood-burning heating systems with more efficient and environmentally friendly alternatives. [^3]
Poland's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
34
|
16 to
18
|
12 to
15
|
6 to
8
|
1 to
2
|
2042 to
2045
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-53 to
-47%
|
-65 to
-56%
|
-82 to
-76%
|
-97 to
-94%
|
| Indicator |
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
34 to
36
|
41 to
47
|
45 to
61
|
54 to
74
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
19 to
22
|
19 to
26
|
18 to
27
|
20 to
33
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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