What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
While Poland’s overall emissions decreased between 1990 and 2019, those from the industrial sector increased by 7% in the same period. Industrial process related emissions accounted for around 6% and industrial energy emissions accounted for 8% of total emissions in 2019 – a smaller share compared to the EU’s average of 9% and 10% respectively.
Poland's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Electrification of the sector will be the main driver of emissions reductions from energy consumption which currently constitutes around 60% of all emissions from this sector. According to 1.5°C compatible scenarios, the share of electricity in energy consumption could increase from 29% in 2019 to between 43-47% in 2030 and up to 67% in 2050.
The remaining 40% of process related emissions show a significant decrease in the late 2020s, and especially in the 2030s, resulting in full decarbonisation by the end of that decade. The scenarios differ in terms of technologies used for decarbonisation some showing increasing share of electricity and hydrogen as the main drivers of emissions cuts.
The main policy for reducing emissions from the industrial sector in Poland is carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). To reduce the potential threat of carbon leakage, many industry sectors receive free allowances, which have. Introducing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as proposed by the European Commission, combined with a full phase-out of free allowances would accelerate decarbonisation of the sector. Using such instruments as Carbon Contracts for Difference could facilitate deployment of low carbon technologies.
Poland's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Poland's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
39
|
8 to
9
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
2036 to
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79 to
-77%
|
-97 to
-95%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
29
|
43 to
47
|
58 to
60
|
64 to
67
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
41
|
64 to
65
|
76 to
85
|
81 to
83
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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