What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Poland’s industry sector was responsible for roughly 16% of economy-wide emissions in 2022.1 This share was split between energy use (10%) and industrial processes (6%). Process emissions in 2022 were 24 MtCO2e, mainly coming from the minerals, chemicals and metal industries. Full decarbonisation would take place between 2034-2044 for the sector to align with the Paris Agreement.
Poland's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In all 1.5°C aligned pathways, electrifying Poland’s industry sector is key. According to the Deep Electrification pathway, electricity would reach a 51% share in the industrial energy mix by 2030 and more than 60% by 2040 and 2050, while coal is correspondingly reduced, with less than 2% share already in 2030.
Further, in the Deep Electrification pathway, gas would be fully phased out by 2050, whereas hydrogen would play an increasing role for Poland’s industry sector as of 2030, tripling its share by 2040 to 11% and ultimately reaching 17% in 2050. Across all pathways, biomass would increase slightly by 2030, falling below 4% by 2050.
In all analysed 1.5°C pathways, electricity, hydrogen and biomass reach 81-90% of Poland’s industry demand by 2050. Polish industry like steel and cement could benefit from a green transformation. The transition could be supported by accessing green finance such as through the European Clean Industrial Deal, which aims to mobilise over €100 billion to support EU-made clean manufacturing, creating jobs.2
Poland's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Poland's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
36
|
5 to
10
|
1 to
9
|
-1 to
4
|
-1 to
1
|
2034 to
2044
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-86 to
-72%
|
-97 to
-75%
|
-103 to
-89%
|
-103 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
34 to
51
|
39 to
58
|
41 to
62
|
48 to
64
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
66 to
72
|
71 to
79
|
79 to
84
|
81 to
90
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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