What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
In 2024, Poland submitted its updated draft National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).1 As of May 2025, Poland has not submitted its final NECP, despite the initial deadline being set for June 30, 2023 for all European Union (EU) member states as part of the FitFor55 package.2
The draft updated NECP includes a target of reducing GHG emissions by 35% below 1990 levels, or to 288 MtCO2e, by 2030 (including LULUCF). This is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways which show emissions would need to fall 63% below 1990 levels by 2030.
Similarly, when excluding Poland’s LULUCF sink, the NDC target would need to be strengthened from an assessed reduction of 37% below 1990 levels to 58% by 2030.
Poland would need to strengthen its 2030 target from its current draft NECP and submit a revised final NECP aligned with the FitFor55 target as well as a 2035 NDC target in line with these pathways to be 1.5°C compatible. For more information on our indicative 1.5°C LULUCF pathways, please see our methodology page.
To achieve its 'fair share' of climate action, Poland would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
Poland's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
Poland is the only EU member state that has not yet adopted a 2050 climate neutrality target nor submitted a long-term strategy as of May 2025. According to the European Commission, the draft updated NECP does not include any indication of if and when Poland intends to achieve climate neutrality, or any emissions projections to 2050. 3 Poland is the only member state that still needs to submit its long-term strategy, which was due by January 2020.
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Poland should reduce its GHG emissions by at least 93% [AR5] below 1990 levels by 2050, excluding LULUCF. As an EU member, Poland would need to commit to climate neutrality by 2050, thus contributing to the EU’s decarbonisation targets.
Poland's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
Note: deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in the modelled pathways
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Poland's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Poland. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
1990
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
475
|
353
|
150 to
200
|
94 to
141
|
41 to
77
|
-11 to
34
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-68 to
-58%
|
-80 to
-70%
|
-91 to
-84%
|
-102 to
-93%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
358
|
272
|
82 to
141
|
35 to
89
|
-11 to
38
|
-55 to
-6
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-77 to
-61%
|
-90 to
-75%
|
-103 to
-89%
|
-115 to
-102%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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