Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

The emissions reduction goal for 2030 of 29% (excl. LULUCF) below 1990 levels presented in the recently adopted 2040 Poland Energy Policy falls significantly short of being 1.5°C compatible.¹ This is significantly less ambitious than the EU goal, that Poland has agreed to contribute to achieving, which requires emissions decrease at more than twice this speed until 2030. Poland’s emissions per capita are on average already higher than those of the EU. Should Poland fail to increase its emissions reduction goal, its emissions per capita in 2030 would be almost twice that of the EU average, reflecting a much lower level of ambition.²^,³

To be compatible with the 1.5°C limit, Poland’s emissions need to decrease in 2030 by between 56-66% below 1990 levels. Poland has the capacity and the capability to reduce emissions at this speed, not the least due to the significant financial support from the EU. Replacing coal and natural gas by renewables and green hydrogen, and ramping up energy efficiency create an opportunity for Poland to not only reduce emissions but also make itself independent from energy imports.

Poland's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Poland does not have a long-term net zero target. To be 1.5°C compatible, the country should reduce emissions by 89% by 2040 below 1990 levels and reach zero CO₂ emissions already in the 2040s, when considering LULUCF sinks at their current levels.⁴ Current policies would see Poland reduce GHGs emissions by around 22% by 2035, with no emissions reduction plans for beyond 2040.⁵^,⁶

1.5°C scenarios show that the agricultural sector will be the biggest source of emissions in 2050, responsible for almost all non-CO₂ emissions together with the waste sector. Poland will need to balance its remaining emissions by mid-century through the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Phasing out coal would significantly reduce emissions intensity of electricity and, through electrification of end-use sectors, support the decarbonisation of other sectors. Electrification of heat in households would be accompanied by home insulation and other energy efficiency measures. Electrification of the transport sector would be complemented by green hydrogen for heavy duty vehicles, and a shift in the mode of transport, especially from air and road to rail, where possible.

Poland will need to decrease its overall energy consumption by 40% in 2030 and 57% by 2050, in comparison to 2017 levels. This will need to be accompanied by a significant uptake in renewables. 1.5°C compatible scenarios indicate the share of renewables reaching up to 81% in 2050, with remaining emissions balanced by carbon dioxide removal approaches, such as BECCS, which are to date largely unproven and uneconomic. The development of renewables is especially critical in the 2020s: scenarios with low requirements for negative emissions technologies show the share of renewable energy of the power mix reaching 90% by 2030.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Poland. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	475	392	187 161 to 209	81 44 to 107	37 13 to 52
Relative to reference year in %			-61% -66 to -56%	-83% -91 to -78%	-92% -97 to -89%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	375	319	159 116 to 175	52 9 to 86	4 -9 to 27	2057 2044 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %			-58% -69 to -53%	-86% -98 to -77%	-99% -102 to -93%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: EEA Greenhouse Gas Data Viewer (2020)
- Download data as CSV

Ministerstwo Klimatu i Środowiska. Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2040 r. (2021). ↩
Eurostat. Population on 1st January by age, sex and type of projection. (2021). ↩
European Environment Agency. EEA greenhouse gas - data viewer. (2021). ↩
LULUCF sinks assumed are based on the current levels provide by the EEA: –36 MtCO₂e in 2018.[^7] ↩
Ministerstwo Klimatu i Środowiska. Polityka energetyczna Polski do 2040 r. (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩

What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Poland's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Poland's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Poland's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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