What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Decarbonising the power sector
Power sector CO2 emissions in Poland have, since 1990, been fluctuating around 60 MtCO2, largely due to high shares of coal/lignite, with 2020 being the exception due to Covid with a significant drop at 50Mt.1 To achieve the emissions cuts seen in the analysed 1.5°C pathways, coal and unabated gas would need to be essentially phased out of the power sector between 2030 and 2035. This has a direct effect on the sector’s emissions intensity, reducing it by more than 90% across all pathways by 2030. Due to high rates of electrification across the energy system, electricity demand grows across all pathways by 8-48% compared to 2022 levels (178 TWh) by 2030, and more than doubles by 2050.
Poland's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.
Methodology
Data References
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To align with 1.5°C pathways, Poland would need to decarbonise its power sector faster and move beyond coal and gas. Renewables would quicky replace both coal and gas by 2030, with a gradual increase thereafter until 2050, producing 403 TWh in the Net-Zero Commitments pathway and 462 TWh in the Deep Electrification pathway annually.
In two of the 1.5°C aligned pathways, hydrogen can complement the transition by playing an increasing role until 2050, reaching around 10% of the power share by mid-century. In the Net Zero Commitments pathway, negative emissions technologies via BECCS rather than hydrogen is deployed, reaching a 5% share in 2050.
Poland's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Power capacity investments
As of May 2025, Poland has approximately 31 GW of renewables installed, with solar leading the way having added more than 7 GW of capacity in the last 2 years.2 To align with 1.5°C, Poland would need to significantly scale up its renewable energy capacity. Namely, across all pathways, a total renewable energy capacity of 120-149 GW would be deployed by 2030, corresponding to USD 10-15 bn annually between 2026-2030, excluding investments in grids or storage.
Under the Deep Electrification pathway, which best captures the potential for rapid electrification to drive fossil fuels out of the energy system, renewable generation reaches more than 90% already in 2030, with that share maintained until 2050. The total renewable capacity in 2050 is projected to reach 286 GW, with solar leading with a 56% share (160 GW) and wind adding more than 120 GW to the system.
Until 2030, annual investments of more than USD 15 bn are needed, dropping to USD 6.5 bn from 2031-2040 and less than USD 3 bn from 2041-2050, to achieve the abovementioned capacities. This is a frontloaded effort when it comes to decarbonisation, indicating the need to increase renewables investment substantially in the short term to align with the 1.5°C warming limit.
As the Deep Electrification pathway shows more renewable capacity to meet higher electricity demand in end-use sectors, other analysed pathways have lower renewable investment requirements (about two-thirds of those in the Deep Electrification pathway from 2026-2030). If Poland were to implement any of these pathways, its power sector could be decarbonised between 2034-2040.
Poland's renewable electricity investments and capacities
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Power sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
332
|
24 to
33
|
-7 to
8
|
-12 to
5
|
-17 to
0
|
2034 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-93 to
-90%
|
-102 to
-98%
|
-104 to
-98%
|
-105 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
%
|
71
|
2 to
2
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
Share of unabated gas
%
|
6
|
3 to
4
|
1 to
2
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
1
|
|
Share of renewable energy
%
|
21
|
88 to
93
|
91 to
98
|
90 to
98
|
89 to
99
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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