What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Due to the role of electrification of other sectors, a rapid decarbonisation of the power sector is essential for overall emissions reduction. According to 1.5°C compatible scenarios, emissions intensity of electricity in Poland should decrease to 60-90 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 compared to around 570 gCO₂/kWh in 2019. This decrease in emissions intensity would be driven mostly by coal phase-out by 2029 and a significant decrease in the share of natural gas, expected to be halved by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.
The government’s targeted share of coal of at least 37% in 2030 and 11% in 2040 is not compatible with 1.5°C pathways. Natural gas should be phased out no later than 2038, but the Polish government is currently heavily investing in natural gas infrastructure. These two sources of energy should be replaced by renewables, which by 2030 should generate between 76 and 86% of electricity. This is significantly above the current government’s target of 32% in the same year.1
Poland's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Due to the electrification of other sectors, in most scenarios electricity consumption will triple between 2019 and 2050. Following a coal phase-out in 2030 and natural gas phase-out in the late 2030s, electricity generation should become carbon neutral between 2037 and 2040 Afterwards, due to a significant contribution from BECCS, electricity generation should be the main contributor to negative emissions resulting in emissions intensity at –370 gCO₂/kWh by 2050.2
With fossil fuels almost completely phased out in 2050, almost all electricity will be coming from a mix of variable and conventional renewables, as well as BECCS. In two scenarios, fossil fuels equipped with CCS and nuclear also play a small role. Scenarios with slower phase-out of fossil fuels are characterised by a high reliance on carbon removal technologies at a later stage. These technologies are, to date, largely unproven at scale and are very expensive.
Poland's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Poland to be on the order of USD 1.3 to 20.5 billion by 2030 and 2.1 to 23.9 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use and modernisation of the aging electricity infrastructure, especially the grid. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Poland's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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Co-benefits
Employment impacts of replacing coal with wind and solar
Decarbonisation is linked to many other goals beyond climate change mitigation. Replacing coal power generation with renewable energy can, among other things, generate employment opportunities.
In Poland, job growth from renewables would outweigh job losses from closed coal power plants at least four to one in a scenario where coal is phased out in line with a 1.5°C pathway and replaced with solar and wind compared to following current plans for coal capacity developments.
We estimate that at least 44,000, and up to over 90,000, new jobs in renewable energy could be created from replacing the phased-out coal-fired power generation with solar and wind power generation, compared to 11,000 jobs that would be lost in coal plant operation and maintenance.
Our analysis focuses on direct jobs in manufacturing of technology parts (to the degree this happens within the country), construction and installation as well as operation and maintenance of power coal, wind and solar capacities. Other existing electricity generation technologies have not been taken into account, nor has growth in electricity demand due to increased electrification, which would increase job estimates. Additional jobs related to storage can also be expected when transitioning towards solar and wind.
Jobs in coal mining (for export or local use) are also not included in this analysis. Estimates from a World Bank report suggest that in 2019 there were around 92,600 people working in the Polish coal mining industry (incl. lignite), but coal production trends in Poland have been declining since the 1990’s and discussion on a just transition process for the sector are ongoing at the national level.3
You can find more information on the methodology and assumptions also linking to more detailed results here.
Air quality and health benefits from phasing out coal
Poland has one of the highest air pollution levels in Europe.4 While a substantial share of air pollution stems from residential heating, with coal a commonly used domestic fuel, coal-fired power generation also contributes to health-damaging outdoor air pollution levels in Poland.
An accelerated coal phase-out in Poland in line with 1.5°C could substantially reduce premature deaths from air pollution. We estimate that over 500 premature deaths could be avoided every year by the mid-2030s compared to compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario illustrating current coal developments. Between 2022 and 2040, we estimate that Poland could avoid a total of close to 7500 premature deaths by accelerating its coal phase out.
Our estimates do not include deaths related to cross-border pollution, i.e. health-damages that Polish coal power plants cause for neighbouring countries. It also doesn’t include health-impacts on Polish residents caused by coal plants in neighbouring countries. If these were included, coal power-related deaths would be even higher.
You can find more information on the methodology and assumptions also linking to more detailed results here.
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Poland
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
570
|
56 to
92
|
0 to
2
|
-366 to
0
|
2037 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-90 to
-84%
|
-100 to
-100%
|
-164 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
74
|
0 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
9
|
5 to
8
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2038 to
2040
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
16
|
76 to
86
|
99 to
99
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
84
|
13 to
24
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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