What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Poland
2035 NDC and NECP an opportunity for Poland to increase ambition
The target in Poland’s draft National Energy and Climate Plan to reduce emissions 35% below 1990 levels by 2030 (including LULUCF) is not 1.5°C aligned. Further, Poland has not yet submitted a new NDC updating its 2030 targets and establishing a 2035 target. To align with 1.5°C and contribute to the EU’s efforts to decarbonise, Poland would need to reduce emissions at least 63% below 1990 levels (including LULUCF) by 2030 and adopt a climate neutrality target by submitting a long-term strategy.
Poland's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Coal exit a prerequisite to align with 1.5°C
Coal accounted for 54% of Poland’s electricity mix in 2024 – down from 70% in 2022 – making Poland the most coal-dependent EU member state. To achieve the emissions cuts required to follow 1.5°C pathways, coal and unabated gas would need to be mostly phased out of the power sector between 2030 and 2035 by deploying more renewables.
Renewables rollout is creating jobs, but more is needed
Renewables filled much of the gap made by declining coal use, producing 27% of Poland's electricity in 2023. Solar is particularly dominant, with projections suggesting it could account for 45% of the electricity generation capacity by 2035. Renewables growth is already contributing to a just transition, with 194,000 renewable energy jobs created as of 2023, making it the second largest solar employer in the EU.