What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Due to economic transformation in the early 1990s, Poland’s emissions fell from 475 MtCO₂e/yr in 1990 to 396 MtCO₂e/yr in 2000. Afterwards they remained steady with emissions in 2018 slightly above the 2000 levels. Between 1990 and 2019, Poland’s emissions fell by 17%, much less than the overall drop in the EU’s emissions of almost 26%, with the bulk of reductions taking place prior to 2000.
In 2018, Poland’s power sector (with accompanied heat generation) was responsible for almost 40% of the country’s GHG emissions. While emissions from transport constituted a much smaller share of 16%, there is a continued upward trend in the emissions from this sector, which has already tripled from the 1990 emission levels.
Implementation of current policies will result in emissions increasing by 3% in the 2020s from 2019 levels, mainly driven by the transport sector, with emissions from the power sector remaining stagnant.1
Poland's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Last available (negative) LULUCF data point from 2018
Data References
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Energy system
While Poland remains heavily reliant on coal, the share of coal decreased from 76% of energy supply in 1990 to 42% in 2019. Most of this decrease was compensated by an increase in oil consumption which rose from 13% in 1990 to 30% in 2019. The share of natural gas and renewables also increased by 8%-points each, reaching 16% and 10% respectively.2
These developments reflect the lack of effective climate and energy policy measures. Support mechanisms for renewable energy in the power sector have been characterised by frequent changes and unpredictability.3 There have been no meaningful policies to decarbonise the transport sector, except for short-lived support for first-generation biofuels. For the household sector, the very successful support scheme for solar thermal collectors introduced in the early 2010s was abolished in 2014.4
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
- 30% below 1990 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
- 29% below 1990 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).5
Market mechanisms
- Emissions from industry and electricity are covered by the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS).
Long-term target
- None. Poland has said it is not ready to contribute to the EU’s goal of climate neutrality by 2050.6
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Increase the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption to 23% by 2030.
- Improve energy efficiency by 23% in comparison to projections for 2030 (6% decrease in comparison to 2019).7
Power
- Increase the share of renewables to at least 32% of generation.
- Offshore wind: 5.9 GW by 2030, 8-10 GW by 2040.
- PV: 5-7 GW by 2030, 10-16 GW by 2040.
- Nuclear: 1.6 GW in 2030 and subsequent blocks every 2-3 years.
- Coal: The share of coal to decrease to between 37-56% in 2030 and between 11-28% in 2040.8
Transport
- Increase the share of renewables to 14%.9
Buildings
- Increase the share of renewables to 28% in the heating sector.10