What is Poland's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Poland’s total GHG emissions in 2022 reached 380 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF, or 344 MtCO2e including LULUCF [AR5].1 Energy-related emissions represent the vast majority of Poland’s total GHG emissions, at 84%. Within the energy sector, the power sector contributes the most with 38% of total GHG emissions, followed by the transport sector (18%), industrial energy use (16%) and buildings (10%). The agriculture sector contributes 9%. Poland’s national GHG emissions in 2022 have decreased by 18% including LULUCF since 1990.2
As a European Union (EU) member state, Poland is expected to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 in line with the European Green Deal. However, Poland’s ambition is aligned with neither the 2030 targets (55% reductions across the EU27 by 2030 compared to 1990), nor the 2050 climate neutrality EU target, with Poland being the only EU member state that has not yet adopted this provision. Poland was eight months late to submit its draft National Energy and Climate Plan and there is currently no final submission of a 2030 target.3
Poland's 2022 GHG emissions
including LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
When graphs include LULUCF, the center value includes LULUCF if the sector is a net source of emissions and excludes it when the sector is a net sink of emissions
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Data References
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Energy overview and main policy gaps
Coal accounted for 54% of Poland’s electricity mix in 2024 – down from 70% in 2022 – making Poland the most coal-dependent EU member state, but its share is dropping on an annual basis the recent years.4 Renewable energy sources filled much of the gap made by declining coal use, producing almost 30% of Poland's electricity in 2024. Wind and solar contributed 23% in 2024 – up from 16% in 2022, indicating a positive -but not sufficient - trend towards cleaner energy, though coal’s share remains extremely high.5
Since 2018, Poland has experienced a solar energy boom, with capacity increasing 8-fold from 1.5 GW in 2019 to 12 GW in 2022. Projections suggest Poland could reach about 36 GW by 2027, with solar PV expected to account for 45% of the electricity generation capacity by 2035.6 This is a positive development, but far from what is needed.
The Polish government recently approved draft legislation easing rules to build onshore wind farms.7 As of 2023, Poland’s renewable energy sector created 194,000 jobs with 113,780 in solar photovoltaic (PV) alone, making it the second largest solar employer in the EU.8 This is a good indicator of alternatives to create a just transition as Poland moves beyond coal. Polish authorities have recently expressed interest in having nuclear plants, adding between 6 to 9 GW of total nuclear capacity by the early 2040s.9 According to the pathways assessed here, renewables could sustain a more flexible power system without the need for nuclear capacities – and at a lower cost than any other technology currently available.10
Targets and commitments
Draft National 2030 target:
As expressed by the country (draft NECP):
- Economy-wide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 35% below 1990 levels or to 288 MtCO2e.11
When excluding LULUCF, Poland’s 2030 draft NECP target translates to:
- 37% below 1990 or 295 MtCO2e [AR5].12
As expressed by the country (NDC):
- Poland does not submit its own NDC but rather falls under the European Union’s NDC, which commits to a “domestic reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990 by 2030. Domestic means without the use of international credits.13
Long-term target
- Poland has not yet submitted a long-term climate neutrality goal for 2050 to align with the European Union’s climate neutrality target.