The emissions reduction goal for 2030 of 29% (excl. LULUCF) below 1990 levels presented in the recently adopted 2040 Poland Energy Policy falls significantly short of being 1.5°C compatible. This is significantly less ambitious than the EU goal, that Poland has agreed to contribute to achieving, which requires emissions decrease at more than twice this speed until 2030. Poland’s emissions per capita are on average already higher than those of the EU. Should Poland fail to increase its emissions reduction goal, its emissions per capita in 2030 would be almost twice that of the EU average, reflecting a much lower level of ambition.,
To be compatible with the 1.5°C limit, Poland’s emissions need to decrease in 2030 by between 56-66% below 1990 levels. Poland has the capacity and the capability to reduce emissions at this speed, not the least due to the significant financial support from the EU. Replacing coal and natural gas by renewables and green hydrogen, and ramping up energy efficiency create an opportunity for Poland to not only reduce emissions but also make itself independent from energy imports.
Long term pathway
Poland does not have a long-term net zero target. To be 1.5°C compatible, the country should reduce emissions by 89% by 2040 below 1990 levels and reach zero CO₂ emissions already in the 2040s, when considering LULUCF sinks at their current levels. Current policies would see Poland reduce GHGs emissions by around 22% by 2035, with no emissions reduction plans for beyond 2040.,
1.5°C scenarios show that the agricultural sector will be the biggest source of emissions in 2050, responsible for almost all non-CO₂ emissions together with the waste sector. Poland will need to balance its remaining emissions by mid-century through the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.